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09.07.2020: USD could develop long-term downtrend (USDХ, DJIA, WTI, USD/CAD)

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Wall Street is trading sideways today. Investors are reckoning risks to the US economy from a surge in the coronavirus rates. The US dollar retreated to the lowest levels of June. Its index sank almost 1.5% against a basket of rival currencies.
Today investors take notice of weekly updates on the US labor market which came out beyond expectations. The number of first-time unemployment claims fell 99,000 to 1 million 314 thousand. Market participants had projected a more moderate decrease to 1 million 375 thousand. The number of initial jobless claims has been declining for 14 weeks in a row following a record spike to 6.87 million after lockdown measures were imposed. The fresh update encouraged market participants. Nevertheless, investors cannot neglect rampant infection rates in the US. Thus, they prefer a cautious approach today, refraining from long deals.
Futures on the benchmark US stock indexes opened today with mixed dynamics. Futures on the Dow Jones edged down 0.2% to trade at 25,964.5. The S&P 500, on the contrary, rose 0.13% to 3,168.42.
The US dollar is trading under selling pressure. In the late New York session yesterday, the index dropped sharply across the board. Today, it is trading lower, testing the lower border of the trading range at 96.34. The current dynamic of the US currency could signal that markets have hit the bottom and the crisis has passed its peak.
Investors are regaining appetite for risk. Business activity is reviving in advanced economies around the world. Consumers are willing to spend money again. Besides, investors are revising their portfolios.
Interestingly, the Federal Reserve has serious doubts about resilience of the US economy. The market views such doubts as a sign that the regulator is ready to expand bond buying programs for its balance sheet. This stance is bearish for the US dollar.
The Canadian dollar is again asserting strength amid the broad-based weakness of its American rival. The loonie also finds support from the overall bullish trend in the oil market. Despite a downtick today, both benchmark oil grades are trading firmly at comfortable levels. WTI settled up at 40 dollars 53 cents a barrel in the evening trade.
The Canadian dollar could face the prospects of a steady downtrend on condition that several headwinds come together such as the second pandemic wave, the bear oil market, and a downturn of global stocks.
If the resistance levels of 1.3580 and 1.3642 are broken, the USD/CAD pair will reverse upwards. Moreover, the pair could develop a long-term uptrend. Meanwhile, the pair is trading firmly below resistance. So, a good trading idea would be to open short positions.

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