16.10.2020: RUB to stay in red until next week (Brent, USD/RUB)

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Oil attempts to steady on Friday morning. Global market sentiment is mostly pessimistic which may cause a new round of sell-off. Meanwhile, there are no factors to support the ruble, so it is likely to stay in the downtrend in the short term.
A bullish report on US crude inventories from the Energy Information Administration helped oil recoup its intraday losses. However, in the morning trade, crude prices again slipped into negative territory. The energy market is under pressure from a stronger US dollar. Besides, the resurgence in coronavirus cases raised fears among investors. Some European countries, such as Germany and France, have to implement restrictive measures to curb the virus spread. This weighs on fuel demand, and the market will soon need to limit the supply.
Brent oil futures for December edged lower by 0.5% early in the session. Oil bulls were trying to hold firm at the level of 43 dollars per barrel. WTI crude futures with the nearest expiration followed a similar trend and settled above 40 dollars per barrel.
At the moment, no serious movements are observed in the oil market. Brent is unlikely to leave the current trading range between 40.00 and 43.50 dollars a barrel. Oil average daily production has slightly declined due to the recent hurricane in the Gulf Coast. Yet, this factor is not enough to boost the oil quotes.
Both benchmarks are currently trading below their September highs. A steady uptrend will be possible only when Brent breaks above the mark of 43 dollars 70 cents per barrel.
Yesterday, the ruble plunged once again, so the US dollar managed to rise above the level of 78.00. The negative background could be the reason for the ruble’s weakness. Earlier this week, Russian banks received big liquidity volumes secured by the federal loan bonds from the regulator. This factor could have also contributed to the fall of the Russian currency.
Today, the ruble won back some of its losses. The dollar/ruble pair eased by 0.2%, moving below the 78.00 mark. Still, the rubble is unlikely to show any rapid changes.The trend might shift only when the pair settles below the level of 76.60.
Today, all eyes are on Brexit talks and the prospects of the new stimulus package in the US. The dollar/ruble pair is expected to trade in the channel between 77.00 and 79.00.

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