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30.06.2020: RUB to face new resistance at 73 against USD (Brent, USD/RUB)

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Positive economic data from China signalling a revival of business activity has added optimism to the markets. Yet, the risk sentiment remains low due to the rapid spread of the COVID-19. Oil has started to decline while the ruble is trading in negative territory as well as other currencies of emerging markets.
The number of global coronavirus cases has exceeded 10 million. Many US states, including Texas, Florida and California, have reimposed the lockdown restrictions. On Tuesday, new 19 cases were reported in China, up from 12 cases registered on Monday. Chinese authorities fear that the new spike of infection may bring the second wave of coronavirus in the country. Infection rate is steadily growing in other countries worldwide. Thus, Australia has reported 78 new coronavirus cases which is the highest daily rate recorded since April.
The COVID-19 outbreak threatens the global economic recovery and puts pressure on fuel demand. Besides, the oil market is weighed down by the rising oil production in the US.
It seems that investors have finally turned their attention to the negative fundamental background. On Tuesday, the market saw a round of moderate sell-offs.
In the day trade, Brent oil futures for September settled at 41 dollars 30 cents a barrel. The North Sea benchmark lost around 1.3% moving lower from the previous close. Brent futures contracts for August are expiring on Tuesday. WTI crude was following a similar trajectory. Currently, the American oil is struggling to hold at the level of 39 dollars a barrel.
Other factors restricting oil prices growth include the rise in the US dollar and industry data on crude inventories from the US. The report from the American Petroleum Institute is expected to show another weekly build in oil stockpiles. In the course of the day, oil is likely to trade flat. The price fluctuations may occur on Wednesday if the data on crude inventories differs greatly from analysts’ expectations.
The ruble opened the day trading in negative territory. The US dollar has considerably advanced in the mid-session. The dollar/ruble pair was trading at 70.88, having gained 1.3%. The ruble is losing ground amid low risk appetite as investors worry about a new surge in coronavirus cases. Today, the Russian currency is following the dynamics of emerging markets assets.
At the moment, the dollar/ruble pair is about to leave the trading channel between 68 and 70 and is set to hit the next level of resistance at the mark of 73.
In the short term, the ruble is likely to trade within the range of 68.50 and 70 against the US dollar. However, this scenario is only possible if Brent settles above 40 dollars a barrel.
At the end of the month and the second quarter of the year, market volatility is likely to increase. In addition, tomorrow is a public day off in Russia which may put the ruble under pressure. Later on Tuesday, traders may want to close their positions on the ruble.

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