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07.07.2020: USD set to break above 73.00 against RUB (Brent, USD/RUB)

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The news about yet another wave of COVID-19 disappointed market participants. A correctional movement can be seen in the oil market. The Russian ruble plunged to multi-day lows following a fall in other minor currencies and oil prices.
The market sentiment turned moderately negative as oil traders shifted their attention to the issue of the COVID-19 pandemic. Crude oil futures opened this trading day in the negative territory as investors worry about a resumption of the quarantine in some countries including the United States. In fact, some American states had to bring the restriction measures back. The tensions are increasing, so the pace of the global demand recovery is likely to be weaker than expected.
Brent oil futures with delivery in September lost about 1%, having fallen to 42 dollars 70 cents. At the same time, the front-month WTI futures also declined but managed to stay above 40 dollars per barrel.
On Monday, oil gained support from the news that Saudi Arabia is going to raise its crude prices for Asia, the US and northern Europe. In addition, the conflict in Libya supported the oil bulls as the daily crude output fell from from 1.2 million barrels to 100 thousand barrels.
Oil’s further trajectory will be determined by traders’ reaction to the rising numbers of COVID-19 cases. The US dollar opened the trade in the positive territory, thus weighing on the oil quotes. Crude oil futures weakened amid a rise in American currency as the stronger the US dollar the lower the demand for energy due to high prices.
Market participants will be closely watching the data on the crude inventories in the US. The weekly oil stockpiles are expected to drop by 3 million barrels. In case crude oil inventories rise or the output increases, oil bears will gain ground and the market will continue the downward correction.
On Thursday, the ruble continues to trade considerably lower as the background remains negative. However, the Russian currency was under pressure even amid moderately positive market sentiment on Monday. What is more, such local factors as the upcoming reduction in daily currency sales under the budget rule from the Bank of Russia may contribute to the ruble’s decline. Besides, the possibility of new US sanctions against Russia may put additional pressure on the ruble.
Today, the dollar/ruble pair is trading above 72.00. In the short term, the US dollar is likely to test the level of 73 against the ruble given the persistent fears over the coronavirus outbreak.
The Russian ruble will most likely stay subdued in the near future amid all the negative factors.

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