19.10.2020: RUB likely to rebound (Brent, USD/RUB)

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Oil is on track to renew its September highs. The possible adoption of the new stimulus package in the US may weaken the US dollar, thus providing support to the oil quotes.
This week, markets will focus on the meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee of the OPEC+ group. Its members will evaluate the current state of the energy market. The technical committee is unlikely to make any important decisions this time. However, investors hope to get the clues about further plans of the alliance that will most likely be discussed at its next meeting on November 30.
At the meeting on Monday, participants will discuss the possibility of reduction in current supply cuts starting from January 1. If the increase in oil production will be put at risk from the pandemic and sluggish fuel demand, oil bulls will certainly gain control over the market. This will allow Brent to settle at higher price levels.
On Monday morning, Brent crude was trading slightly lower as the downbeat economic data from China has dampened investor sentiment. China’s GDP expanded by 4.9% in the third quarter which is below analysts’ expectations of 5.2%. Besides, traders have evaluated Friday's report from Baker Hughes, showing a sharp rise in the number of active oil rigs.
Later in the day, oil quotes returned to positive territory. Brent oil futures with the nearest expiration gained 0.3% to trade above 43 dollars per barrel. The same was true for WTI crude with its December contract trading at 40 dollars 20 cents per barrel.
Overall, oil is holding within the current trading range. At the moment, there are no strong drivers to push Brent above the resistance of 43 dollars 50 cents per barrel. Still, oil may surge above this level amid some positive news.
The ruble opened this week trading flat and consolidating near the 78.00 mark against the US dollar. However, the Russian currency still has a chance for a rebond. The dividend payments from Sberbank, that put pressure on the ruble, have finished. Now the ruble bulls are supported by the favorable background and the rise in foreign currency sales amid the tax payment period in Russia. A negative factor to weigh on the ruble is the excess liquidity provided by the REPO operations from the Central Bank of Russia.
The level of 77.00 still serves as a strong support for the dollar/ruble pair. It is not expected to exit the range between 77.50 and 80.00 in the course of the week.
The background remains moderately positive today. If the risk appetite grows and the situation in the energy market improves, the ruble is likely to recoup its previous losses.

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