08.11.201800:53 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EURUSD: lack of retail sales growth is a bad sign for the eurozone economy

Long-term review

The European currency continued its gradual growth against the US dollar, as well as the British pound, after today the division of the US Congress became known. As I noted in the morning review, Democrats gained a majority in the House of Representatives, and Republicans retained a majority in the Senate, which creates a number of problems for US President Donald Trump, who will find it increasingly difficult to implement his political ambitions and plans. We are talking about further tax reform, as well as a trade war with China.

It is possible that the division of Congress could critically interfere with the US president's plans for a further active trade war with China by introducing new duties on Chinese goods.

On the other hand, the risks of impeachment to the current US president have seriously decreased. Even if the Democratic party is able to obtain a majority of votes, further hearings should be held in the Senate, where the advantage is on the side of the Republicans. And impeachment requires the votes of two-thirds of senators.

Fundamental data

The data on the German economy released in the first half of the day and forecasts on its growth rates supported the European currency.

According to the report, industrial production in Germany in September this year increased by 0.2% compared to August, while a number of economists expected that production, on the contrary, will decrease by 0.2%. Let me remind you that industrial production showed an increase of only 0.1% in August. Economists had expected production to remain unchanged. As for the manufacturing industry, the production did not show any change, but the construction sector grew by 2.2%.

Exchange Rates 08.11.2018 analysis

Compared to the same period in 2017, industrial production in Germany increased by 0.8% in September this year. Gradually, the increase will have a positive impact on the overall economic growth for the 3rd quarter of this year.

Today, a report from the Council of Economic Experts was published, in which Germany's GDP growth in 2018 was revised in a positive direction. The economy is expected to grow 1.6% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019. As for the main risks for Germany, they are focused around the escalation of the trade conflict, the hard Brexit and the resumption of the crisis in the eurozone. The Council also believes that the problems can create a late turn of monetary policy by the European Central Bank.

Data on retail sales in the eurozone, which came out in the first half of the day, were ignored by the market. According to a report from the statistics agency, retail sales in the eurozone in September this year remained unchanged compared to August, while economists had expected an increase of 0.1%. Compared to the same period in 2017, retail sales increased by 0.8%. Data for August were revised. The growth was 0.3% compared to July.

Exchange Rates 08.11.2018 analysis

The weak report once again shows that the eurozone economy is beginning to show signs of a slowdown in the 3rd quarter of this year, which may seriously affect the plans of the European Central Bank, which is going to resort to significant changes in monetary policy next year. This is a bad sign for the growth of the European currency in the medium term.

*تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں.

Jakub Novak,
انسٹافاریکس کا تجزیاتی ماہر
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