4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 62p - 67p - 92p - 95p - 37p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 71p (72p).

The presidency of Donald Trump began with the fact that he regularly declared the "high cost" of the national currency, that is, the dollar. During the first year of his presidential term, we often heard that the "dollar" was too expensive. Later phrases began to appear that the "expensive" dollar makes it difficult to service the national debt, even later, that many countries deliberately underestimate the course of their monetary units in order to gain an advantage in trade relations with the United States, even later - Trump launched several trade wars and began to blame the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell in raising the key rate too quickly, which led to an even greater increase in the US currency. And now Jerome Powell sends signals to the market that the Fed is ready to lower its key rate in 2019. Is this the victory of Donald Trump? If yes, then it's very doubtful. After all, now the rate will go down after it has risen to 2.5%. Yes, the dollar has dropped in the last few weeks, but before that it had been growing for several years. Yes, the rate can be lowered, but it still remains higher than that of the ECB or Bank of England. Yes, Trump got his way, but when: in a few years? And the Fed as it was independent of Trump, and will remain so, and if macroeconomic statistics will no longer disappoint, then the Fed can abandon the easing of monetary policy. Today, the US currency began to rise in price from the middle of the European trading session. Perhaps due to the fact that a technical correction has come, perhaps on the eve of Jerome Powell's speech, who is not expected to make new dovish comments on monetary policy. Either way, the euro/dollar began to decline to a critical line, and a rebound from it could trigger a resumption of an upward trend, and to overcome it - the beginning of a new downward trend.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair started to adjust. Thus, long positions remain relevant for the euro/dollar pair with a target of 1.1438, and an upward reversal of MACD or a rebound from the Kijun-sen line will indicate the completion of the downward correction.

It will be possible to sell the euro/dollar pair if bears manage to gain a foothold below the critical line, with the first goal of 1.1241. In this case, the initiative for the EUR/USD pair may return to the bears' hands.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.