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09.11.2020 03:39 PM
EUR/USD analysis on 09/11/2020: The Dollar continues to fall, Biden is the US President, markets fear Trump's possible retaliations

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The wave marking of the EUR/USD instrument suffered certain changes after the quotes fell below the minimum of wave b. In the coming days, it may suffer new changes since the trading of recent days has almost completely broken the current wave markup. At first, I assumed that a new triple down would be built. Now the entire wave marking can take an even more serious form and the construction of an upward trend section will resume. If this is true, then the increase in quotations will resume within wave 5 and wave 4 will take a very long form. In addition, another three waves may be formed which will formally be descending.

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A smaller-scale wave marking also indicates the possible end of the downward section of the trend that begins on October 21. With the final decrease, the instrument could form a wave from the next three so after its completion, a new three can be built up or the upward trend section within the global wave 5 will resume altogether. This might happen, as I mentioned when analyzing the 24-hour timeframe. If this is the case, then the construction of a correction wave 2 or b may soon begin.

The American election is over and it is possible to draw the conclusion the the winner is Joe Biden. Thus, the US Dollar continues to lose the demand of the foreign exchange market. It seems that markets continue to be wary. They continue to fear Donald Trump because a peaceful transfer of power to Democrat Biden is clearly not planned. Republican Trump is going to challenge the election results in many disputed States where his margin over Biden was no more than 1%. Trump still believes that the Democrats rigged the election by mail-in voting. Ballots continued to arrive at election commissions much later than November 3 which was the election day in the United States. Although under US law, each voter must send a ballot with their vote by November 3 inclusive. Thus, it all depends on the US post office in what time frame it will deliver all letters with ballots to the polling stations. However, due to postal votes over the next few days (after election day), the picture changed, allowing Joe Biden to win. Thus, we can assume right now that the election will not end there. This is exactly what Trump said in one of his speeches, urging Biden not to be happy ahead of time. The markets are clearly afraid of further actions of the US President and the US Economy needs the help of the government. The government, in the coming months, will continue to fight for power in the next four years. Markets are wary of this. The Dollar continues to decline.

General conclusions and recommendations:

The Euro-Dollar Pair has presumably completed the construction of a three-wave downward trend section. Thus, at this time, I recommend buying a tool with targets located near the 1.2010 mark (which corresponds to 0.0% Fibonacci) for each MACD signal up, based on the construction of wave C. However, before the construction of this wave begins, quotes may depart from the reached highs within wave b.

Chin Zhao,
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