Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair moved up at an unhurried pace last night and went 22 points above the upper line of the 1.1700-1.1900 horizontal channel. So now we can say with greater confidence that the price has managed to break out of the horizontal channel. However, as we mentioned earlier, 20 points is nothing. A new upward trend line appeared, but is completely useless at this time. First, it has a fairly high tilted angle. That is, almost any more or less significant correction will lead to the fact that the price will settle below this line. Secondly, the MACD indicator is still at its highest positions and cannot be discharged to zero. Therefore, novice traders are now deprived of the opportunity to trade bullish. What if the price settles below the upward trend line in the near future? Formally, this will mean a new round of downward movement, within which the price may even return to a horizontal channel.
No important macroeconomic report or fundamental event from the European Union and the United States on Thursday, November 26. However, it seems that traders do not need these events right now. For example, there were a lot of reports yesterday, and the pair's volatility remained rather weak. Now the most important thing is to figure out whether a new upward trend will start forming now, or is the breakdown of the 1.1903 level false? The pair has already overcome the 1.1903 level once in the last four months, but after that it still returned to the horizontal channel. There are now a sufficient number of important topics in the EU and the US, but not a single one that could influence the pair's movement right now. All themes are merely background. Therefore, we do not expect the EUR/USD pair to significantly move due to fundamental events.
Possible scenarios for November 26:
1) Long positions have formally become relevant. Buyers managed to take the pair above the 1.1903 level. However, the current upward trend, supported by the trendline, can be broken at almost any moment. And the MACD indicator cannot be discharged to the zero level in any way, therefore, buy signals are not strong. Moreover, we would not even advise you to trade without the MACD indicator, simply placing Stop Loss below the trend line. We believe that more favorable conditions should be expected when buying the pair.
2) Trading for a fall at this time remains more relevant. However, this requires the price to settle below the trend line. In this case, the probability of quotes returning to the 1.1700-1.1900 horizontal channel will sharply increase. In this case, we recommend selling the euro while aiming for 1.1888 and 1.1861.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
