The price in December staged an upward rally (the news background played an important role), breaking through the level of 1.3621 (red dotted line) – a pullback level of 76.4% and testing the resistance of 1.3685 (red bold line). In January, a downward pullback from the upward trend is possible.

Trend analysis

In January, the price from the level of 1.3658 (closing of the December monthly candlestick) is expected to decline to the first target of 1.3351 – the pullback level of 14.6% (blue dotted line). In case of testing this level, the upward movement can continue to the upper target located at 1.3708 – the resistance line (red bold line). The final monthly target may be the level of 1.3940 – the pullback level of 85.4% (red dotted line).

Figure 1 (monthly chart)

Indicator analysis:

• Indicator analysis - down
• Fibonacci levels - down
• Volumes - down
• Candlestick analysis - down
• Trend analysis - down
• Bollinger lines - down

A possible downward trend can be concluded based on complex analysis.

The overall result of the candlestick calculation based on the monthly chart: the price will most likely have a downward trend without the first upper shadow (first week of the month – black) in the monthly black candlestick and with the second lower shadow (last week – white).

The most likely scenario: the price from the level of 1.3658 (closing of the December monthly candlestick) is likely to move downwards to the first target of 1.3351 – a pullback level of 14.6% (blue dotted line). After testing this level, the upward movement will continue to the next upper target at 1.3708 – the resistance line (red bold line). The final monthly target may be the level of 1.3940 – the pullback level of 85.4% (red dotted line).

An alternative scenario: the price from the level of 1.3658 (closing of the December monthly candlestick) may possibly move upwards to the first target of 1.3742 – the historic resistance level (blue dotted line). In case of testing this level, the upward movement will continue to the upper target of 1.3940 – the pullback level of 85.4% (red dotted line).