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05.08.2021 12:46 PM
EUR/USD: plan for the US session on August 5 (analysis of morning deals).

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

In my morning forecast, I said that against the background of the lack of important fundamental statistics, the pair has every chance to hang in the side channel again, which happened. However, there was still one signal to enter the market. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about where it was possible to enter. The resistance of 1.1844 has worked itself out. Unsuccessful consolidation above this level and a false breakdown led to a signal to open short positions. But it did not come to a powerful sale, and it will not come at all. We had to revise the technical picture for the second half of the day since the focus will now be on American statistics.

Traders will closely monitor the report on weekly applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Yesterday's report from ADP significantly surprised traders, turning out to be much worse than economists' forecasts. It is unlikely that weak indicators will somehow significantly affect the market. However, they will make a reserve for tomorrow's report on the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector of the United States. If the data turns out to be weaker than the forecast, we can count on the formation of a false breakdown in the new support area of 1.1826, which will lead to the formation of a signal to open long positions. But the more important task of buyers, which will lead to a reversal of the bearish correction, will be to consolidate at the level of 1.1848, which the bulls failed to do in the first half of the day. The reverse test of this area from top to bottom forms a signal to open long positions with the expectation of continuing the uptrend to the maximum of 1.1872, where I advise you to fix the profit. It is unlikely to be possible to count on a breakdown of this range inside the day today. If this happens, the test of 1.1872 from top to bottom will form an additional entry point for purchases, which will lead EUR/USD to new local levels: 1.1898 and 1.1937. If the bulls fail to offer anything in the support area of 1.1826, it is best to postpone long positions until the next low of 1.1800, from which you can buy the pair immediately for a rebound, counting on an upward movement of 15-20 points within the day. The next major support is seen in the area of 1.1774.

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To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Sellers are in no hurry to return to the market yet. However, they have coped with the task set for them in the first half of the day, but they are still unable to continue the bearish trend. Strong data on the US labor market will help push EUR/USD to the lows of today. The bears' focus will be on the pair's decline to the area of 1.1826. Before selling the euro, I advise you to wait for the breakdown and update of this level from the bottom up and only after that open short positions to reduce to a larger minimum of 1.1800, where I advise you to fix the profit. The next target will be 1.1774, but this is not with such volatility as today. In the case of EUR/USD growth during the US session, I advise you to look at the resistance of 1.1848, just above which the moving averages are playing on the sellers' side. It is possible to open short positions only if a false breakdown is formed by analogy with the morning sale, which I analyzed above. I advise you to sell the pair immediately for a rebound based on a downward correction of 15-20 points only from the level of 1.1872.

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In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for July 27, the market continued to be skewed towards sellers of risky assets. Long positions decreased, and short positions increased, which led to another decrease in the overall positive net position. The results of the Federal Reserve meeting indirectly affected the direction of the euro. However, given the wait-and-see position of the committee, fewer people were willing to buy the US dollar. The data on US GDP and the eurozone were quite different: in the US, the report fell short of economists' forecasts, and in the eurozone, on the contrary – the indicator turned out to be better than forecasts, which led to the growth of the euro. However, this fact is no longer taken into account in the current COT report. Thus, it seems that the balance of power remains on the side of the bears. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased from the level of 208,669 to 202,245, while short non-commercial positions increased from 162,847 to the level of 164,119. Only at the end of this week, we are waiting for important fundamental statistics on the change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector of the United States of America, which can significantly affect the direction of the EURUSD pair. Good data will become a powerful bullish impulse for the US dollar, which will strengthen its position as the Federal Reserve System continues to refer to the weak pace of labor market recovery in its forecasts. The total non-commercial net position decreased from the level of 45,822 to the level of 38,126. But the weekly closing price rose slightly from the level of 1.1791 to 1.1804.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates a small control of the sellers of the euro.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

The volatility has decreased significantly, which does not give signals for entering the market.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Miroslaw Bawulski,
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