GBP/USD – 4H.
The British pound did not pay any attention to the Fed meeting, at which the US regulator eased monetary policy for the second time in a row. The pound did not pay attention to the inflation report, which recorded its decline to 1.7% y/y, although traders expected a much higher value. As a result, the GBP/USD pair made a return to the correction level of 38.2% (1.2501), then rebound from it, and now returned to this level. In total, the pair have fought back from the level of 38.2% three times, but the bulls are trying hard to push this level while ignoring the information background, which was not with them for a long time. It was the information background yesterday that should have sent the pound/dollar pair far down. But this did not happen, moreover, the pair continues to try to close above the psychologically important mark of $1.25. If traders do manage to do this, there will be immediately new reasons to buy the pound.
The pound has ignored not only yesterday's news, which was not related to Brexit but also ignores incoming information regarding the exit from the EU. For example, today it became known that Scotland has once again stated its desire to withdraw from the United Kingdom if Boris Johnson implements his Brexit "No Deal". In this case, the Prime Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon notes that the country will suffer heavy financial losses. Moreover, Scotland does not want to leave the EU in principle. In the 2016 referendum, the majority of Scots voted against Brexit. Thus, there is a question of holding a referendum on independence in Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon also expressed the hope that Britain will remain in the European Union, but "there are really few chances for this," the Prime Minister summed up.
Well, new interesting information comes from Boris Johnson. Let me remind you that on Monday, Juncker and Johnson met in Luxembourg, immediately after which the British Prime Minister said about the mythical "progress" in the negotiations on Brexit, and just a few hours later, the European Union denied this statement. Now, Johnson's office said that he had a telephone conversation with European Commission President Juncker, during which the parties discussed their meeting on Monday and were "overwhelmed with determination to agree." I wonder when the refutation of this information from Jean-Claude Juncker himself will follow? The pound ignores this information as well. It seems that traders openly believe that all Johnson's plans will fail, Brexit will not be until October 31, the Parliament will return to its work in the coming week, and the Prime Minister will eventually resign.
What to expect from the pound/dollar currency pair today?
The pound/dollar pair continues to "push" near the retracement level of 38.2% (1.2501). Thus, I expect the pound/dollar pair to close above this level, which will allow traders to expect further growth towards the next Fibo level of 50.0% (1.2668). However, until then, I recommend not to rush with purchases of pounds. The UK retail sales report for August will be released today in Britain, but the chances that traders will ignore this data are also large.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of March 13, 2019, and September 3, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
I recommend buying the pair with a target of 1.2668 and a stop-loss order below the level of 1.2501 if a close above the Fibo level of 38.2% is performed.
You can stay in small (or even scanty) sales of the pair with a target of 1.2308, since 3 rebounds from the level of 1.2501 were made and a bearish divergence was formed (there are still some chances of falling), with a stop-loss order above Fibo level of 38.2%.
*Prezentowana analiza rynku ma charakter informacyjny i nie jest przewodnikiem po transakcji.
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