27.03.202007:18 Przeglądy analityczne: The ruble is stabilizing, but this is not the end. Coronavirus: soft quarantine in Moscow is a big mistake of Sobyanin

Exchange Rates 27.03.2020 analysis

The fall of the ruble against the dollar and the euro stopped.

Dollar 78.00. Euro 85.50.

But a new wave of decline is likely within two weeks, and here's why:

Soft quarantine in Moscow is a big mistake.

The reason - two days in a row growth + 30% of new infected - creates the risk of explosive growth in the number of patients in just a week to several thousand.

The entire experience of the main affected countries: China, Italy, Spain - shows: a) quarantine - the main tool against the rapid growth of diseases; b) with a total number of patients above 20-30 thousand - creates an unacceptably high load on medicine.

Conclusion: Yesterday in Moscow it was necessary to introduce strict quarantine for at least 2 weeks, namely: the closure of the metro and public transport and all enterprises except those necessary for life support. Losses must be borne by the budgets of Moscow and Russia. So far, it has not been possible to bring down the growth of new infections below + 10% per day - no measures will be too harsh. (Suburban traffic should also be closed).

I would like to make a mistake, but the measures I have cited will be introduced, but in 7-10 days - in a much more difficult situation.

People take care of yourself.

*Prezentowana analiza rynku ma charakter informacyjny i nie jest przewodnikiem po transakcji.

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