Average volatility over the past five days: 171p (high).
The last trading day should be extremely interesting for the foreign exchange market. Yesterday, traders were shocked by data on the unemployment rate - for the period from March 13 to March 20, Americans filed 3.3 million applications for benefits. Amid such information, the US currency began to lose ground against the euro and the pound at a faster pace. From our point of view, it is completely logical. We have already said in previous articles that there were no good reasons for the strong dollar growth in the last month. In addition to the holy faith of most market participants in the firmness of the US currency. Thus, now we are witnessing a logical process of returning "to its place."
Several US macroeconomic data will be published on Friday, March 27. We are talking about changes in personal income and spending of the US population in February. However, since we are talking about the second month of the year, and not about the third crisis, no special changes in these indicators are expected, and no particularly strong reaction of market participants to these reports is expected. At the very end of the day, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for March will be published. This indicator can seriously fall. However, the key event of the day, of course, will be the vote of the House of Representatives of the US Congress on the bill providing for the allocation of $2 trillion to counter the negative impact of the coronavirus on the economy. Most likely, there will be no problems with the adoption of this bill. Thus, tomorrow it can be handed over to President Donald Trump for signature.
However, the most interesting question now sounds like this: what awaits the US dollar in the next week or two? According to all the canons of technical analysis, the pair corrected after a strong fall. Now either it will continue to grow, that is, form a new upward trend, or resume a downward trend. We believe that much for the US dollar will now depend on Trump, who wants to end the quarantine period as soon as possible and return Americans to their jobs. Trump calls on Americans to celebrate Easter (April 12), get together on that day in churches, and by the 13th to go to work. Leading epidemiologists believe that such a move could be a fatal mistake for America. The pandemic continues to spread, and health experts consider it appropriate for at least another month to keep social distance and adhere to quarantine. And only when it is possible to stop the spread of the virus, it will be possible to think about the partial removal of quarantine measures. According to an epidemiological study, if the Americans are now allowed to "quit quarantine," then the number of infected can reach 126 million in a couple of months, of which about 1.3 million will die. It is difficult to even imagine such a scenario of events on paper. It is unlikely that even in a country like America there are about 10-20 million hospital beds. But people are not only affected by the coronavirus. Experts believe that adhering to quarantine measures, firstly, allows you to gain time that will be spent on developing a vaccine, and secondly, it will make it possible to stretch the infection process in time and facilitate the work of the health system. All, as one, epidemiologists agree that an economic pause is necessary to prevent the infection of most of the US population.
And the last one! Many experts often compare the COVID-2019 virus to the flu virus. They say that the coronavirus is not much more dangerous than the usual seasonal disease for the planet Earth. Recent studies have shown that the coronavirus surpasses the flu in viral potential (the number of people that can infect one patient), and in the index of hospitalization (the percentage of the number of infected to the number of hospitalizations), and in the mortality rate (the percentage of people who die from the virus). According to scientists, one patient can transmit the COVID virus to 99,000 people in two months, of which up to 20,000 will need to be hospitalized. Thus, the COVID-2019 virus is much more dangerous than seasonal flu.
Average volatility over the past 5 days: 367p (high).
The GBP/USD currency pair continues an upward movement on March 27 and worked out the top line of the Ichimoku Senkou Span B cloud. The first resistance level for the 4-hour timeframe also lies near this line - 1.2242. If these two barriers are successfully overcome by the bulls, then the pound will be able to continue his victorious track upwards. We believe that after two weeks of failure, the British currency may well return to its roots. In the UK, no important and significant publications are planned for today. On the other hand, traders still pay a little attention to the macroeconomic background. Thus, we continue to wait for information on the state of the British and American economies for March, all other data are not worthy of attention. According to the latest data, about 12,000 people have already become infected with the coronavirus in the UK. Only 142 have fully recovered.
Recommendations for EUR/USD:
For short positions:
The euro/dollar continues to move up. Thus, it is recommended to sell the euro after consolidating quotes below the critical line with the goal of the support level of 1.0476, which is located far enough and requires the resumption of the formation of a downward trend.
For long positions:
Long positions look more preferable, as the pair crossed the Kijun-sen line. At the same time, the buy signal from Ichimoku remains weak until the Ichimoku cloud is overcome. In case of overcoming, trading on an increase is recommended with targets 1.1200 and 1.1455.
Recommendations for GBP/USD:
For short positions:
The pound/dollar continues to move up after a rebound from the Kijun-sen line. Therefore, it is recommended to sell the pound with the goal of the support level of 1.1229 only after the bears return to the area below Kijun-sen.
For long positions:
It is recommended to buy the GBP/USD pair if the Senkou Span B line and the level of 1.2242 with the targets of 1.2539 and 1.2840 are overcome. Also, as in the case of the euro currency, it is advised that you keep in mind the increased risks when opening any positions.
*Prezentowana analiza rynku ma charakter informacyjny i nie jest przewodnikiem po transakcji.
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