Average volatility over the past 5 days: 367p (high).
The British pound, unlike the euro, did not find the strength to start a downward correction on the last trading day of the week. On the one hand, this is good, as the British currency will continue to recover. On the other hand, the pound/dollar pair is now moving almost recklessly upwards. Thus, in total over the past month, we have 450 points up, 1,700 down and now 900 more up, and all this is almost without corrections and rollbacks. The pair's volatility remains at a fairly high level - about 360 points per day. It is encouraging to see that the pair passed no more than 200 points today. This gives hope for calming market participants. Although, of course, there are few fundamental reasons for reassurance now...
Today, it became known that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was infected by "coronavirus". Johnson will now have to self-isolate himself in Downing Street until he recovers. However, the Prime Minister is not going to go on sick leave, he will continue to lead the country and lead the opposition to the "coronavirus". It is noted that Johnson has mild symptoms of the disease. Earlier, Boris Johnson commented on the results of the G-20 summit, saying that cooperation between countries should be expanded to speed up the process of creating a vaccine against the epidemic. Johnson also said that the UK will allocate 210 million pounds for the development of a vaccine against COVID-2019.
Unfortunately, all the measures taken by the developed countries of the world to counter the epidemic are not decisive at the moment. At best, it is possible to contain a higher rate of infection growth. At the same time, new cases of the disease are noted every day and the bill is already for thousands of new patients. We believe that the most accurate forecasts are made by representatives of the WHO or the health sector. It is best for doctors to understand what this epidemic is, and how many people can get infected and die. Thus, we believe that the forecasts are not at all reassuring yet. Macroeconomic statistics were not published in the UK today, but in any case, they do not have a great impact on the currency market now. Traders are waiting for statistics for March when a full-scale epidemic began around the world. We have already heard forecasts for the American economy many times, but we can only guess what will happen to the British or European economies. In any case, 2020 will be a black year for the whole world.
From a technical point of view, the pound/dollar pair continues its upward movement and overcame the Ichimoku cloud and the resistance level of 1.2242. Thus, the buy signal from Ichimoku "golden" cross has strengthened, and the chances of continuing the formation of an upward trend have increased. Unfortunately, this upward movement can end almost at any moment, since, although volatility has decreased slightly today, anyone can hardly say with confidence that the panic is behind us.
Recommendations for long positions:
The pound/dollar pair continues to move up. Thus, it is now recommended to stay in purchases of the British pound with the goal of the volatility level for March 27 at 1.2539. There was no rebound from the Senkou span B line or the resistance level of 1.2242. A downward turn of the MACD indicator may signal the beginning of a correction.
Recommendations for short positions:
It is recommended to sell the pound/dollar pair after fixing below the critical Kijun-sen line, which now passes around the price level of 1.1900. At the moment, the target for sale positions is the support level of 1.1229, but by the time the necessary consolidation occurs, the goals will be different.
*Prezentowana analiza rynku ma charakter informacyjny i nie jest przewodnikiem po transakcji.
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