30.06.202018:59 Przeglądy analityczne: Dollar may eventually depreciate

Exchange Rates 30.06.2020 analysis

Wall Street is showing mixed dynamics today. Investors are torn between hopes of economic recovery and news of the spread of the virus. US stocks opened in negative territory, but internal statistics have improved the mood of investors who have received another batch of positive macroeconomic data. The growth in the consumer confidence index in the US in June significantly exceeded market expectations. Analysts had forecast an increase of 91.8 points from 86.6 points in May, while the indicator rose to 98.1 points. Earlier, strong indicators on the US economy were also published, which spurred market enthusiasm.

Key stock index futures went up, while the dollar index lost ground.

On Tuesday, the markets are waiting for another test upon the speech of Jerome Powell and Steven Mnuchin. Financial authorities speak to a committee of the US House of Representatives. This event will set the tone for the trading session on Wednesday. Powell should touch on the topic of coronavirus and regulatory support for the economy. An optimistic tone will support stock indices and put even more pressure on the position of the US dollar, which showed growth for the fifth day in a row.

USDX

Exchange Rates 30.06.2020 analysis

Meanwhile, talking about the return of risk appetite will be premature, since there are plenty of pressure factors on risky assets. China passed a law on security in Hong Kong, tightening control over the former autonomous city. Washington did not have to wait long for the reaction, the United States terminated the city's special trade status that was granted earlier to Hong Kong.

The World Health Organization warns that the pandemic situation is not over yet, and many countries remain vulnerable to the virus. Moreover, the world has now entered a new dangerous phase of the spread of coronavirus. The second wave may prove even more powerful in its negative impact on the global economy. A shadow of the lockdown loomed over the markets. In this situation, the US dollar has a chance to restore positions, but so far the growth has been limited to maximum marks in more than three weeks. The dollar index has managed to expand the trading range at the moment. The greenback is spreading its wings, but there are not enough forces and triggers to take off in the form of an economic slowdown due to the pandemic.

Meanwhile, Freedom Finance's sentiment index is at 13 out of 100. The indicator shows that market anxiety about the negative effects of the pandemic is decreasing. The separation of the indicator from the minimum values may indicate an improvement in prospects.

Now there are a lot of forecasts and speculations on where the dollar will go. Hugh Hendry, an independent macroeconomist, suggested that the US Treasury should lower the dollar to 60 in the index. Quantitative easing programs do not work, he said, so you need to pay attention to the value of the dollar.

"When I look at the macro world, I think that everything tells us that we need a lower dollar exchange rate. We need the Treasury, not the Fed so that it is resolved and tells the world that we are going to lower the dollar index to 70 or even to 60. This would change the world, "Hendry said.

Natalya Andreeva
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