GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair quotes fell to the lower border of the upward trend corridor. Thus, the rebound of quotes from this line will work in favor of the British and the beginning of the pair's growth in the direction of the corrective levels of 100.0% (1.3176) and 127.2% (1.3264). Meanwhile, there are still a few reasons for the new growth of the British currency. European officials said this week that negotiations on a trade agreement between Brussels and London are unlikely to end this week. Thus, no positive information can be expected yet. Also, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey noted progress in creating a vaccine against coronavirus, however, he also noted that this information does not change the Bank of England's forecasts for the economy. Recovery from the crisis (which is not even complete yet) is expected to be difficult and lengthy. The Bank of England expects to see a recovery in economic conditions and business activity next spring. Thus, no one expects the economic situation to improve in the coming months. So in any case, everyone will have a rather difficult winter. The number of cases is not decreasing in Europe or America. And the coldest time of the year is still ahead.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US dollar and consolidated under the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3191). Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next corrective level of 38.2% (1.3010). Fixing the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 23.6% will allow traders to expect the resumption of the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 0.0% (1.3481).
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes have consolidated above the corrective level of 76.4% 1.3016, which now allows us to expect further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% (1.3513).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair closed under the lower downward trend line, thus, a false breakout of this line followed earlier. However, in recent weeks, the pair has made new attempts to gain a foothold over both trend lines.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Thursday, the UK released important reports on GDP and industrial production. Both were worse than expected by the trader, thus, the information background was not on the side of the British on Thursday. However, the American statistics were not the strongest either. As a result, there was a drop in the British.
Us and UK news calendar:
US - consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (15:00 GMT).
UK - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech (16:00 GMT).
On November 13, the UK news calendar contains a speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, but yesterday, for example, he did not report anything important. Other important events are not expected today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on the British pound showed that the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became even more "bearish" during the reporting week. Speculators continued to get rid of long contracts, closing a total of 3,281 units. At the same time, they slightly increased the number of short contracts, opening 1,146. Thus, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category has become more "bearish". However, due to the US presidential election, the British pound rose strongly last week. This data was not included in the latest COT report, thus, I can't conclude how the mood of major traders changed after November 2. You need to wait for the next COT report and analyze it. According to the latest report, I can say that the chances of a fall in the British dollar are very high now.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the GBP/USD pair with targets of 1.3053 and 1.3010 if the closing is performed under the ascending corridor on the hourly chart. I recommend buying the pair if a rebound is made from the lower border of the ascending channel with targets of 1.3176 and 1.3264.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
