EUR/USD

Yesterday, the US dollar was uncomfortable with the New Zealand central bank's announcement to stop the redemption of bonds on its balance sheet and the Bank of Canada's statement to reduce bond redemption from 3 billion dollars up to 2 billion weekly. By the end of the day, the euro grew by 60 points.

If the price rises according to the alternative scenario, this option seems to be erratic. If we assume that the price would surpass the 1.1855 target level, and the price will go to 1.1975 (which the MACD line is approaching), then this growth may have an unpredictable structure, as the price has many record levels along the way. And a radical downward reversal may occur without reaching 1.1975.

The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is still within its own channel. This circumstance makes it difficult for the oscillator to enter the positive area, since the border of the bulls' territory coincides with the upper line of this channel. We are waiting for the exit of this signal line from the channel to the downside, which, most likely, will happen after the price has dropped below yesterday's low. Further, the price will go to the first target at 1.1705, then to 1.1640.

On the four-hour chart, the price went below the MACD line this morning, the Marlin oscillator returned to the downward trend area. These circumstances increase the likelihood of a price reversal downward from current levels.