20.06 .2019: Crude oil and ruble gain ground as expected (BRENT, USD, RUB)
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve took a milder approach to its monetary policy and excluded the “wait and see” wording from its corresponding statement yesterday.
Most experts have no doubt that the US financial watchdog will reduce the interest rate three times this year: in July, September and December. However, only eight FOMC members supported a rate cut until the end of this year. Other eight members expressed an opinion that the funds rate should be left unchanged. Interestingly, there was one Fed official who wished to hike the rate. Nonetheless, the current economic conditions justify a rate cut regardless of the fact that some FOMC members stand against it.
The Fed dovish statement triggered a rally on the market. Investors hope that cheaper credits will boost business activity in the United States that is considered to be one of the biggest energy consumers. Amid that, the Brent crude benchmark advanced to 63.50 dollars per barrel.
At the same time, the ongoing trade war between China and the United States limits a rise in oil prices due to a significant decrease in industrial production volumes and a consequent decline in demand for commodities. Admittedly, market participants factor in Donald Trump’s intentions to hold negotiations on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, but it is hardly possible that the conflict will be resolved.
There is one more factor that provides support to oil prices. It is a decline in the stockpiles of crude oil in the United States. Yesterday the Energy Information Administration reported that the inventories decreased by 3 million 106 thousand barrels in a week ended June 8. Meanwhile, experts predicted a fall of 1.5 million barrels.
Amid higher oil prices and cheaper US dollar, the Russian ruble managed to gain ground. Today the dollar-ruble pair is hovering in the area of 63.20 and is likely to consolidate near this level.
In the coming days the ruble may strengthen further on the back of the upcoming deadline for tax payments. Besides, the annual direct line with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin that is being held today can have a good impact on the ruble exchange rate.
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