4-hour timeframe
Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 147p - 176p - 144p - 65p - 151p.
Average volatility over the past 5 days: 137p (high).
Well, the UK Parliament has officially gone on a 5-week vacation, and Boris Johnson has softened his rhetoric on Brexit. Now the prime minister believes that a "deal" with the European Union can be achieved and every effort should be made to do so. But if this option is not possible, the country must leave the European Union without an agreement and can withstand it, Johnson said. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair also spoke on this occasion. He said that the snap parliamentary elections Johnson is seeking will not help solve the difficult situation with Brexit. Only one more popular referendum can resolve the current crisis. Blair said that it is incorrect, in principle, to mix issues of early elections in Parliament and Brexit, as these two issues should be separated. According to Blair, Boris Johnson believes that the early elections will give him the opportunity to raise the question of Brexit with an edge: either the country leaves the EU without a "deal", or Jeremy Corbyn becomes the new prime minister. Probably, it means that Corbyn, as prime minister, will not satisfy a much larger number of British citizens than an unordered "divorce" with the European Union. We can also add that the prime minister clearly hoped to increase the presence of Conservatives in Parliament through re-elections, which would allow him to more easily push the "hard" Brexit through the wall of warring opposition. However, all this will not happen. In the coming weeks, we will be observing the actions of Boris Johnson, who should now ask the EU leaders for a delay, and the EU leaders who must give Johnson an answer. The question now stands on the agenda: will the European Union approve the new Brexit date postponement?
Meanwhile, the pound is again rising against the US dollar thanks to another very good package of macroeconomic statistics from the United Kingdom. Today, September 10, it became known that the unemployment rate fell from 3.9% to 3.8% in July, and the average wage including bonuses increased by 4.0% in July against the forecast of +3.7%. Traders found these reports strong enough to continue buying the British currency.
Well, what in the end? As a result, the pound has risen and remains in this position. Until Boris Johnson begins to pull the rope to his side, the fundamental background for the British pound will remain very favorable, because the main question that worries the currency market now is whether the hard Brexit will take place before October 31 or will it be postponed. thanks to the actions of the Parliament, but are there possible options? Thus, until Boris Johnson takes any actions that again bring them closer to a disorderly exit, the pound will be prone to growth.
Trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD currency pair resumed an upward movement with targets at resistance levels 1.2437 and 1.2499. The average volatility in the pair remains quite high. The MACD indicator has begun to discharge. Thus, it is recommended to trade with the stated goals, and to manually close trades use signals to rebound from target levels or by moving Stop Loss up.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen is the red line.
Kijun-sen is the blue line.
Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.
Chikou Span - green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD indicator:
Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.
