GBP/USD – 4H.

Hello, traders! According to the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair reversed in favor of the British currency after the formation of a bullish divergence of the MACD indicator and begin the process of growth to the upper line of downward trend corridor, which continues to dominate sentiment as bearish. However, I believe that despite the next growth process, the drop in quotes will resume in the direction of the second target level of 1.2789. Thus, bear traders need to be ready in order not to miss the moment of new sales of the "Briton". Only fixing the pair's rate above the trend corridor will work in favor of the British currency and will allow us to count on a change of mood to "bullish".

Overview of fundamentals:

On Thursday, February 20, the UK released data on retail sales in January. The information that all four indicators were higher than traders' expectations did not help the "Briton" at all. Thus, the "bearish" mood of traders now outweighs the information background.

News calendar for the United States and the European Union for February 21:

United Kingdom - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (10:30 UTC+00).

United Kingdom - index of business activity in the service sector (10:30 UTC+00).

USA - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (14:45 UTC+00).

USA - index of business activity in the service sector (14:45 UTC+00).

The index of business activity in the UK can once again begin to fall. Forecasts for US indices are similar. So you need to wait for the actual values of these reports.

COT survey (Commitments of traders):

Major market players continue to sell the British pound. For the week of February 11, the total number of short positions increased by almost 6,000 and long positions decreased by 2,000. The total number of short positions in the commercial category exceeds the total number of long positions. Among hedge funds and speculators, there is a slight predominance of long positions. The total number of short and long is almost the same. Further pressure from major players on the "British" position is required. We are waiting for the new COT report to determine changes in positions among traders.

Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:

The trading idea is to sell the pound with a target of 1.2789 since the closing was already completed under the low level of 1.2904. Weak reports on business activity in the UK or strong reports in the US will help with the implementation of a sales trading idea.