Markets remain cautiously positive. The main focus remains on the situation around the coronavirus and its impact on the global economy as a whole and on individual countries.

In recent days, markets have begun to show a steady positive mood, which is associated with changes in the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, primarily in Europe and the United States. China, in turn, has already generally coped with this problem and is now on the way to restore business and manufacturing activity. In the wake of this cautious optimism, there is a smooth rebound in the US and European stock indexes.

The currency market is stabilizing against the euro and the pound after the dollar weakened last week. Support is given to commodity currencies - Canadian, New Zealand, Australian dollars, and Norwegian krone. On the other hand, the Japanese yen is under pressure.

The stabilization of the euro/dollar and pound/dollar pairs is associated with a high degree of uncertainty for the eurozone to apply broader stimulus measures. On Wednesday, the European authorities failed to clarify this issue. And for the British currency exchange rate, the limiting factor was that Prime Minister B. Johnson went to intensive care because of a deterioration in the background of a disease caused by a coronavirus.

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar is growing due to the revitalization of industry in China after the coronavirus pandemic. It is also supported by the recent decision of the RBA to keep the key interest rates unchanged at around 0.25%. The New Zealand currency is also pulling up behind it.

At the same time, the Japanese yen is declining for two reasons, on the one hand, some improvement in sentiment in world markets, increased demand for risky assets, on the other hand, the decision of the Japanese authorities to quarantine and expand incentive measures to $ 1 trillion.

In general, we continue to look at the emerging market situation in a positive way. Tight control measures for COVID-19 have already begun to succeed. We believe, as before, that April will be a turning point month. Business and manufacturing activity in Europe and the USA will gradually recover by the end of the month and in May.

In the currency market, commodity and commodity currencies have a good prospect of continuing to grow against the US dollar. Against this background, the yen and the franc will be under pressure. The conclusion of a new OPEC + deal today will have a beneficial effect on raising crude oil prices. In a situation of general stabilization in the markets and a smooth return of optimism, gold is most likely to consolidate before the end of the week, approximately near current levels.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD/USD pair is trading above the level of 0.6200. We believe it is possible to buy it with a possible local growth to 0.6320.

WTI crude oil will receive support amid a new agreement between the Russian Federation and OPEC on restrictions on crude oil production. We expect the quotes to continue to grow to the level of 29.25 after breaking the level of 27.00.