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01.09.2020 10:06 AM
GBP/USD. September 1. COT report. The pound continues to use "American gifts".

GBP/USD – 1H.

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According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair continued the growth process and performed a consolidation above the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3397). Thus, the growth of quotes can now continue in the direction of the next corrective level of 200.0% (1.3478). The upward trend corridor continues to characterize the current mood of traders as "bullish". Everything written in the EUR/USD article applies to the British. Both pairs are simultaneously continuing the growth process, despite the fact that there have been few news and economic reports from the UK and the European Union in recent days. Thus, the conclusion is obvious – the reason is in the US and the US dollar. Demand for the US currency continues to fall, and traders are doing their best to get rid of it. The reasons for this are not always obvious, however, in general, the American economy, the epidemiological situation in the United States, and the general situation in this country (mass protests, high unemployment, a strong collapse in GDP, and the presidential election in November) remain very difficult. Traders also ignore all information related to the failed negotiations on the Brexit deal. The negotiations are essentially over, which means there will be no deal with the European Union. This means that from 2021, Britain will trade with the EU under WTO rules, which will deal an additional blow to the British economy. However, traders are not interested in this moment right now.

GBP/USD – 4H.

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On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a consolidation above the corrective level of 200.0% (1.3373), which increases the probability of further growth in the direction of the next corrective level of 261.8% (1.3717). An upward trend corridor keeps traders in a bullish mood. Thus, the two lowest charts indicate a confident "bullish" mood among traders. Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator. I recommend counting on a drop in quotes if the pair performs anchoring under the trend corridors on any chart.

GBP/USD – Daily.

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On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3199), which now allows us to count on continued growth in the direction of the next Fibo level of 127.2% (1.3684).

GBP/USD – Weekly.

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On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair closed above the lower downward trend line. Thus, the growth process can now be continued in the direction of the second downward trend line, fixing above which will further increase the probability of further growth of the British dollar.

Overview of fundamentals:

There were no economic reports in the UK or America on Monday. Thus, the information background was not available on this day, which did not prevent traders from continuing to actively buy the British dollar and sell it.

News calendar for the US and UK:

US - ISM manufacturing index (14:00 GMT).

On September 1, the UK news calendar again does not contain any important entries, so the information background will be extremely weak on Tuesday. Only the ISM index can attract the attention of traders.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

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The latest COT report on the British dollar showed a sharp drop in interest among speculators in this currency. A group of non-commercial traders cut both long and short contracts in equal amounts during the reporting week. Thus, despite the fact that the number of contracts focused on their hands decreased by 19 thousand, the mood among large traders has not changed, that is, it has not become more "bearish". Thus, according to the COT report, there are still no prerequisites for the end of the upward trend. Moreover, in the last days of last week, the British dollar resumed its growth, so we can assume that the "bullish" mood among major traders will increase even more. The reduction in the number of contracts for both the "Non-commercial" group and all groups of traders combined did not affect the pair's volatility in any way.

Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:

I recommend selling the British currency if it is fixed under the trend corridor on the hourly chart. Purchases of the British dollar can continue to be held with the target of 1.3478, however, it may start a downward pullback today, as the pair is located near the upper borders of two trend corridors at once.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.

Samir Klishi,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
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