The US dollar is holding its positions against its competitors, but no significant changes were observed in the market.

In terms of yesterday's economic calendar, Europe published a lot of statistical data. But judging by the trading schedule, only few were interested in them. First, we had the publication of final data on the business activity index in the services sector for February. It rose from 45.4 points to 45.7 points, which is even better than the preliminary estimate. This was followed by the producer price index for January, which increased by 1.4%. In annual terms, the rate of decline slowed down to zero.

At the same time, the United Kingdom also released its final business activity index in the services sector for February. There was growth, but it was less than expected – from 39.5 points to 49.5 points.

The pound has passed into the decline stage by the time these statistical data were published.

During the US trading session, ADP published its US employment data, where they recorded growth at 117 thousand, instead of the forecasted growth of 177 thousand for January. This is worse than expected, but still not bad. At the same time, the previous ADP data for January was revised in favor of growth from 175 thousand to 195 thousand.

The market did not react at the time of the publication of employment data. So, it can be assumed that market participants will focus on the main US labor market data that will be published on Friday.

What happened on the trading chart?

The EUR/USD pair moved into a decline stage after a short stagnation within the borders of consolidation. As a result, the euro rate fell towards the level of 1.2045. In fact, the attention of the quote is still on the correction from the high of the mid-term trend, from which the price moves.

Although it showed a local downward interest yesterday, the GBP/USD pair remains concentrated on the area of the psychological level of 1.3950/1.4000/1.4050, trying to develop it as a resistance.

Trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 4, 2021

Today, Europe will publish its retail sales data, whose growth is expected to be replaced by a decline in volumes (0.6% ---> -1.2%). This is considered as a bad signal for the Euro currency.

Along with retail sales, there will also be a publication of unemployment data in the country, which is expected to increase from 8.3% to 8.4%.

Once the European data is confirmed, the euro will most likely weaken.

• EU 10:00 Universal time - Volume of retail sales
• EU 10:00 Universal time - Unemployment rate

As for the United States, weekly data on unemployment claims will be released in the afternoon.

The volume of initial applications for benefits is predicted to increase from 730 thousand to 750 thousand.

The volume of repeated applications for benefits, in turn, may decline from 4,419 thousand to 4,300 thousand.

USA 13:30 Universal time - Applications for benefits

Looking at the current EUR/USD pair trading chart, one can notice that the price area of 1.2040/1.2050 serves as a variable pivot point. Upon its breakdown, market participants will rapidly move towards the psychological level 1.2000.

As for the current GBP/USD pair trading chart, nothing surprising has happened in the market in 35 hours. The quote follows within the psychological level area, periodically trying to work it out downwards.

We can assume that if the price holds below the level of 1.3920, the quote can be expected to head towards the local low (1.3850) of March 2. After that, it can decline further towards the main level of 1.3750.

Traders will consider an alternative scenario of the market development if the price holds above the level of 1.4050 in the H4 time frame, since in this case, there may be a prolongation of the main trend.