EUR/USD – 1H.
During the last day, the EUR/USD pair fell to the corrective level of 127.2% (1.2067), rebounded from it, and resumed the growth process, completing a close above the level of 1.2117 on the way. Thus, the growth of quotes of the euro currency is resumed and may continue in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.2166). The essence of all of yesterday was the decisions that the Fed and Jerome Powell personally had to make. Most of the day, traders refused to trade the pair in any way, and only in the late afternoon, more or less active trading began. However, even they can not be called active. The euro rose after the Fed made it clear that the quantitative easing program will continue in the near future.
That is, the hopes of many traders collapsed, and the US dollar came under pressure. Among other important statements, we can highlight the high assessment of the pace of recovery of the US economy, the improvement of forecasts for the coming years. On the other hand, there was enough pessimism. So Jerome Powell said that the coronavirus still poses a threat to both people's lives and the economy. Not all sectors have recovered, some are still in a very poor state, said Powell, but the recovery is fast. As for inflation, it was said that it would be allowed to be "moderately above" 2.0%, without saying what will happen if inflation continues to accelerate after a growth of 2.6% y/y. The Fed also once again announced that it plans to continue buying assets worth $ 120 billion a month until the economy and its key indicators reach pre-crisis levels or approach them as close as possible.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes resumed the growth process after a new rebound from the trend line in the direction of the level of 1.2223. Thus, the current mood of traders is still characterized as "bullish." Closing the pair's rate under the trend line will favor the US currency and some drop in quotes. There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair quotes performed a close above the descending trend line. Thus, the growth process on this chart can be continued in the direction of the corrective level of 423.6% (1.2496).
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle," which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On April 28, the European Union and the United States had something to pay attention to. The Fed meeting and its results led to a fall in the US currency. The information background had a strong impact on traders.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - change in GDP for the quarter (12:30 UTC).
US - number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 UTC).
On April 29, the calendar of economic events in the European Union remains empty, and the US will release a very important report on GDP for the 1st quarter, as well as a less important one - on applications for unemployment benefits. I believe that the information background will still play an important role in the movement of the pair today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, which turned out to be very eloquent. At the moment, a bullish trend has formed on many charts, or it is about to form. As it turned out, the "Non-commercial" category of traders was also engaged in building up long contracts and closing short contracts during the reporting week. The first opened 6,283. The second closed 8,534. Thus, the "bullish" mood of speculators increases again, which gives reason to expect the continuation of the growth of the euro currency. The gap between the total number of long and short contracts in the hands of major players is growing again.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend selling the pair if it closes below the trend line on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.1989 and 1.1922. Today, the pair's purchases were recommended when it broke away from the trend line on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.2117 and 1.2166. They should be kept open for now.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
