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05.07.202110:03 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 5, 2021

In theory, the content of the report of the United States Department of Labor should have caused the further strengthening of the dollar, but something went wrong. 850 thousand new jobs were created outside of agriculture, instead of the projected 650 thousand, so the dollar really should have grown significantly. However, everything was spoiled by the unemployment rate, which was supposed to drop from 5.8% to 5.7%. But instead, it rose to 5.9%. It turns out that there are indeed more new jobs, but they are either created where there are basically no people, or the working conditions are such that citizens prefer to stay at home without work. In general, the rise in the unemployment rate not only surprised market participants, but also provoked the growth of the single European currency.

Unemployment rate (United States):

Exchange Rates 05.07.2021 analysis

In the euro area today, the final data on business activity indices, both composite and in the service sector, are published. Usually, such data do not affect the market at all, since they coincide with the preliminary estimates already taken into account by the market. However, last week, the final data on the PMI in the manufacturing sector was better than the preliminary estimate, so something similar may happen with the PMI in the services sector, as well as the composite PMI. Thus, the single European currency is likely to strengthen its position.

Services PMI (Europe):

Exchange Rates 05.07.2021 analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair managed to correct by about 60 points last Friday, where the 1.1800 region serves as a pivot point.

The market dynamics after several days of deceleration went into acceleration mode, showing local speculative interest in the market.

If we proceed from the current location of the quote, we will see a slowdown at the level of the base of the previous correctional move 1.1847.

In order for the downward interest to resume in the market, the quote must first return below 1.1847, and then break through the support level of 1.1800. Otherwise, the correction may be delayed.

Exchange Rates 05.07.2021 analysis

*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.

Dean Leo,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2021
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