EUR/USD – 1H.
On Monday, July 12, the EUR/USD pair performed a rebound from the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1837) and a slight increase in the direction of the Fibo level of 61.8%. However, at the moment, the quotes have again performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and are returning to the level of 76.4%. A new rebound will again allow us to count on some growth of the pair, and closing below this level will increase the chances of continuing the fall in the direction of the level of 1.1772. Boring Monday was due to an empty information background. There was no news at all yesterday. Thus, traders can only wait for this very news or important reports. Or actions from larger players that will move the pair from the dead point and allow it to move more actively.
Today, during the day, the information background is unlikely to be much stronger than yesterday. Although the US inflation report for June will be released in a few hours today, it is not a fact that it will be able to cheer up traders a little. Everything will depend on how inflation changes at the end of June. The minimal change compared to the previous month (5.0% y/y) is unlikely to cause a serious movement of the euro/dollar pair on Tuesday. Although a few hours before the release of this report, the US currency is growing slightly. However, this is only about 30 points. Thus, traders continue to wait for some important and serious information or when the situation will resolve itself. Given the low activity of traders now, it may be better to switch to medium-term trading and keep trades open for at least a few days. Since within one day, the price changes are minimal and it is extremely difficult to make money on them.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a reversal near the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1890) in favor of the US currency. Thus, the process of falling can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.1782). The European currency continues the process of falling. However, it is doing it very slowly. Closing the pair's exchange rate above the level of 61.8% will work in favor of the euro and some growth in the direction of the corrective level of 50.0% (1.1978).
Overview of fundamentals:
On July 12, the calendars of economic events in America and the European Union were empty. Thus, there was no information background on this day, and the pair moved sluggishly all day.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - consumer price index (12:30 UTC).
On July 13, an important consumer price index for June (inflation) will be released in America. Therefore, the reaction of traders may also be quite strong to this report. But it is also possible that the reaction will be a movement of points by 10-20 if the value of the indicator does not differ much from the forecast.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed that during the last reporting week, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders again became more "bearish". Major players have opened 3,871 long contracts on the euro, but also opened 16,472 short contracts. Thus, in the last three weeks, the number of short contracts focused on the hands of speculators has increased by 44,000, and the number of long contracts has decreased by 1,000. Therefore, a further fall in the European currency is very likely. At the same time, the general mood of speculators remains "bullish", since there are one and a half times more long contracts on their hands.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the pair with a target of 1.1772, if the closing is made on the hourly chart below the level of 1.1837. I recommend buying the pair in case of a rebound of quotes on the hourly chart from the level of 1.1837 with a target of 1.1919.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
