To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:
In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.3678 and recommended that you make decisions on entering the market from it. There was a rather interesting situation where two different signals were formed at the same level. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened. At the first resistance test of 1.3678, a false breakdown was formed, which led to a signal to sell the pound further along with the trend. However, there was no major drop in the pair, and after moving down by 13 points, the demand for the pound returned. After some time, a breakdown and a reverse test of 1.3678 took place from top to bottom, which led to the formation of a buy signal. However, the bulls could not offer anything against the trend, and I did not wait for a major upward movement when writing this article. From a technical point of view, the picture has changed a little. It will be possible to say that the buyers of the pound managed to reverse the downward trend only after the pair went beyond the resistance of 1.3697, which is now the focus of traders. Only a breakout and a test of this level from top to bottom will form a good entry point into long positions with the aim of further upward corrective to the level of 1.3728. An additional goal will be a maximum of 1.3762, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the US real estate market data exceeds the forecasts of economists, or the situation with the US debt limit worsens, the pressure on the pair may return in the afternoon. If this happens, an acceptable strategy for buying will be the formation of a false breakdown in the area of a new low of 1.3664. If buyers do not show anything in this range, the optimal scenario will be long positions from the level of 1.3633 and then only counting on a small rebound up, since the repeated update of this minimum will certainly be evidence of the continuation of the bear market observed since mid-September. I also advise you to open long positions in GBP/USD immediately for a rebound in the area of 1.3603 with the aim of an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day.
To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:
The initial task of the bears remains to protect the resistance of 1.3697, which is now focused on the buyers of the pound. The absence of important fundamental statistics for the United States will be in the hands of sellers since data on laying new foundations in the United States have little in common with the foreign exchange market. The formation of a false breakout at the level of 1.3697 will weaken the position of the British pound and push the pair to the intermediate support of 1.3664. A breakout and a test of this area from the bottom up will form an additional entry point into short positions, which will bring GBP/USD even lower - to 1.3633, and there it is just a short walk to the minimum of 1.3603, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the absence of active sellers around 1.3697 and poor data on the housing index in the US, I advise you to postpone sales until a new resistance of 1.3728. I also recommend opening short positions from there only if a false breakdown is formed. You can sell GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from a new high in the area of 1.3762, counting on a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day.
The COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for September 14 recorded a sharp positive dynamics of the net position and a fairly large influx of long non-commercial positions, along with a reduction in short ones. And although the British pound remains under pressure in pair with the US dollar, a clear decline in the trading instrument indicates a fairly high interest in long positions on the part of major players. It is quite possible that the sharp increase in inflation in the UK last week forced many traders to reconsider their attitude to the monetary policy of the Bank of England in the direction of its possible tightening. However, the fact that representatives of the Bank of England are in no hurry to talk about these changes affects the activity of traders. I advise you to continue to adhere to buying the British pound with any good decline. The lower the pound falls, the more active buyers of risky assets will begin to show themselves, betting on real changes in the monetary policy of the Bank of England in the future. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased sharply from 29,348 to the level of 44,161.
In contrast, short non-commercial positions decreased 53,872 to the level of 39,371, which indicates a preponderance towards the buyers of the pound and the leveling of the market situation. As a result, the non-commercial net position returned to a positive value and increased from -24,524 to 4,790 a week earlier. The closing price of last week was almost unchanged and amounted to 1.3837 against 1.3838 a week earlier.
Signals of indicators:
Trading is conducted around the 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates some uncertainty with the further direction of the pound in the short term.
Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
In case of a decline in the pair, the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.3635 will provide support.
Description of indicators
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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