Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair traded very poorly on the 30-minute timeframe on Monday. This "bad" is expressed by the fact that the quotes crossed the upward line again. If novice traders rewind the chart a little back, they will see that this is not the first time the price breaks the uptrend line and then resumes its upward movement. This behavior of the pair greatly interferes with profitable trading on it. However, Monday, as we expected, turned out to be weak. There were no important macroeconomic reports available today. Movements during the day were not in line with the technical picture and expectations. Thus, a very unfortunate day in terms of trading. We also draw the attention of beginners to the fact that at this time the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs move differently, although they usually move very similarly. At this time, the European currency tends to fall more, and the British one - to rise. Although they have a common denominator - the dollar.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The picture is much more complicated and even worse on the 5 minute timeframe. The pair spent most of the day in an absolute flat (horizontal channel), constantly crossing the 1.3734 level, which has already lost its relevance, and accordingly, forming signals. Naturally, all these signals could not be worked out, because after the first two it became clear that the 1.3734 level is not strong and is not able to form strong signals. And the pair itself is not ready to move in a trend today. Thus, novice players could only work out the first two signals. First, the price broke the level of 1.3734 from the bottom up, and then from the top down. Consequently, beginners could first enter a long position and then short. For both, a loss of 12-13 points was received. Unfortunately, bad days like this happen too. You need to strive to cover these losses on good days. We remind beginners that every trade cannot be profitable. If the pair moves in a flat and it is not identified in time, losses are almost guaranteed, since almost any trading system implies a trend.
How to trade on Tuesday:
The upward trend has reversed on the 30-minute timeframe, and volatility has sharply dropped. I would like to believe that today is an exception to the rule and tomorrow everything will be different. However, the trend is still broken, so we again do not advise beginners to follow the signals on the MACD indicator for some time. The important levels on the 5-minute timeframe are 1.3688, 1.3708, 1.3749, 1.3773, 1.3796. We recommend trading on them. The price can bounce off them or overcome them. As before, we set Take Profit at a distance of 40-50 points. You can use all the nearest levels as targets at the 5M TF, but then you need to take profit, taking into account the strength of the movement. When passing 20 points in the right direction, we recommend setting Stop Loss to breakeven. On October 19, the only highlight of the day will be a speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey. It is not a fact that it will provoke at least some kind of reaction from traders, but it can still. Be careful during this speech.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
