GBP/USD 5M

The GBP/USD currency pair was trading more calmly on Tuesday, but the volatility still remained very high, almost 200 points. Late in the evening, a new powerful fall began, which may well turn out to be a new round of the collapse of the British currency. No important statistics published in the UK on Monday or Tuesday, and there were no important events or news. Thus, we believe that the market continues to be in a panic state due to recent geopolitical events. We said that the euro may well continue its decline in the near future. And if the euro can, then the pound even more so... Therefore, a lot depends on what news of a geopolitical nature will come from Russia, Ukraine, NATO countries and the European Union. Unfortunately, the forecasts are not optimistic yet. Everything is going to the fact that the geopolitical conflict will continue to grow.

Not a single trading signal was formed on Tuesday. The price was only getting close to the critical line, but could not work it out. It's a pity, because a strong sell signal could be formed. However, the nature of the movements now is such that it may be better not to really enter the market for a while. Or trade on a higher TF, which we also analyze every day.

COT report:

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound was again very eloquent. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 11,600 long positions and opened 6,000 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by another 17,600, which is a lot for the pound. The net position indicator has been growing for several months, but the mood of the big players still remains "pronounced bearish", which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). And now it has begun a new decline, so the British pound still cannot count on a strong growth. How can you count on it if the market sells the pound more than it buys? And now its decline has completely resumed and multi-year lows are updated almost every day, so the bearish mood of major players can only intensify in the near future. The non-commercial group now has a total of 109,000 shorts and 41,000 longs open. The difference is again almost threefold. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures. Moreover, one should not forget about the high demand for the US dollar, which also plays a role in the fall of the pound/dollar pair.

We recommend to familiarize yourself with:

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 28. The euro still does not understand how to start growing. Geopolitics may still put pressure on the pair for a long time.

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 28. Theresa May is out, Boris Johnson is out, now Liz Truss is out? How much longer will the political turmoil in Britain continue?

Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 28. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.

GBP/USD 1H.

The pound/dollar pair continues its downward trend on the hourly timeframe, which is already in fact a collapse. For some time the market was in a state of pause, but now it is already clear that the fall can resume with renewed vigor. We do not believe that the reasons for this fall lie in Great Britain or on the sidelines of the Federal Reserve. We believe that geopolitics is pushing the pound down and may continue to do so for a very long time. Any trend ends sooner or later, but it is very difficult to say when this one will end. We highlight the following important levels: 1.0357, 1.0930, 1.1212, 1.1354, 1.1442. Senkou Span B (1.1475) and Kijun-sen (1.0858) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. No major events scheduled for Wednesday in the UK and the US. However, the pair does not need new economic data now to keep moving ultra-volatile. We believe that high volatility may persist today, as well as in the next few days.

Explanations for the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.