2014.04.2306:02:00UTC+00Daily Outlook for Crude Oil Prices

Quotes from Commerzbank Corporates & Markets:

-Brent dipped briefly below the $109 per barrel mark yesterday and has managed only a negligible recovery overnight. Whereas Brent shed only approx. $1 during the course of trading yesterday, WTI fell by almost $3 to a two-week low of $101.5 per barrel on the last day before the contract rollover. As a result, the price differential between the two oil types has widened again to just shy of $8, putting it at its highest level since the end of March. 

-After close of trading yesterday, the API reported a lower than anticipated increase in US crude oil stocks of 519,000 barrels. Indeed, gasoline stocks actually fell by an unexpectedly sharp 3.4 million barrels. Although this served to widen the crack spread between gasoline and WTI, it did not allow the WTI price to recover. WTI is likely to fall further today if the official inventory data due to be published by the US Department of Energy this afternoon show a renewed increase in crude oil stocks.

-Having risen by 10 million barrels in the week before, they are now just 4 million barrels below the record level they achieved a year ago. Even the fact that refineries have been processing crude oil at a rate that significantly exceeds the normal level for this time of year has been unable to prevent the continuous increase in US crude oil stocks.

-Brent will also face downside risks unless there is further bullish news from Ukraine or Libya. The agreement reached three weeks ago between the government and rebels in Libya appears to be hanging in the balance - it had envisaged a gradual opening of the oil terminals occupied by the rebels