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Exchange Rates 24.05.2019 analysis

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.

CCI: 266.9045

The American trading session yesterday suddenly made a surprise for the traders. Macroeconomic reports on business activity indices in the United States were a failure. We are not talking about the shortage of one or two-tenths of a point to the projected values. We are talking about much lower values. For example, business activity in the manufacturing sector in May was 50.6 with a forecast of 52.5, and in the services sector – 50.9 with a forecast of 53.2. However, these are only preliminary values, not final. Nevertheless, it is clear to any trader that with such preliminary figures, the totals will also be quite disappointing. Thus, the US dollar fell under the pressure of the foreign exchange market yesterday. Market participants began to sharply withdraw from the "dollar" positions, which led to changes in the technical picture. The trend for the euro/dollar pair has changed to an upward one and buy orders have become relevant. On the last trading day of the week, all the attention of the market will be focused again on the States. There will be published a report on the change in the volume of orders for durable goods for April. Almost all forecasts predict a decline in volumes, and if they come true, the euro for the second day in a row can show growth against the US dollar. Today, macroeconomic information is not expected from Europe, but elections to the European Parliament began there.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1169

S2 – 1.1139

S3 – 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1200

R2 – 1.1230

R3 – 1.1261

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair changed its direction and overcame the moving average line. Thus, it is recommended to consider the long positions with the targets at 1.1200 and 1.1230, but in small lots, since both linear regression channels are directed downwards.

It is recommended to consider selling orders for the euro/dollar pair only after the reverse consolidation of the price below the moving average with the targets at 1.1139 and 1.1108.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Performed by Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert
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