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4-hour timeframe

Exchange Rates 20.08.2019 analysis

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: 64.6215

Boris Johnson in his first month as Prime Minister of Great Britain walks on a thin blade. With great fanfare and a wide margin, a victory was won overall rivals in the party, and then a month passed. The pound fell to historic lows, the British population began to prepare for Brexit, as for the Third World War, stocking up on food, medicines and other essentials, while a conspiracy is brewing in the British Parliament against Boris Johnson, who is led by Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn. The only reason for the conspiracy – to prevent "hard" Brexit. It turns out that the "hard" scenario of the "divorce" with the EU will shock most of the politicians, as it may drive the country into a hopeless crisis for many years, and also lead to the holding of referendums on independence in Northern Ireland and Scotland, the majority of which supports the option to "stay in the European Union." And the outcome of the referendum, no one can predict. The main complaint against Boris Johnson is that he does not try too hard to negotiate a new "deal" with the European Union. Theresa May went to Brussels for talks with EU leaders almost every two weeks. Johnson did not meet with Tusk, Juncker and the company during the month of the country's reign, however, he repeatedly suggested revising the terms of the "deal" in words. The European Union, of course, refused every time, since it did not receive any reasonable proposal. More precisely, he simply "did not receive any proposal." There are only Johnson's statements to the media, which create the appearance of a desperate desire to start new negotiations with the EU, to remove from the text of the agreement the paragraph on "backstop" and divorce amicably. However, what Britain would do in this case was not clear. Yesterday, Boris Johnson said that "he is confident that the European Union will change its mind and compromise in the end" and sent a letter to Donald Tusk, the head of the European Council, with a proposal to revise the terms of Brexit. In particular, Britain may waive the condition that Northern Ireland will remain part of the EU Customs Union during the transition period, but Johnson wants no rigid borders between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Most likely, Johnson's new attack will end, like all previous ones, with Brussels' refusal of any negotiations. That's the situation in the British Kingdom for a little more than 2 months before the next date X – October 31.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2115

S2 – 1.2085

S3 – 1.2054

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2146

R2 – 1.2177

R3 – 1.2207

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair formally continues its upward movement, very weak. Thus, you can consider buying pound with the target of 1.2177 and 1.2207, but with minimum lots. It will be possible to sell the pound sterling after fixing the pair below the moving average, which will return the initiative to the bears in the market.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Haiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Performed by Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019
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