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Inflation in Europe slowed down from 1.3% to 1.0%, and this is the lowest value since November 2016. But then inflation gradually but steadily grew, but the European Central Bank still did not even think about curtailing the action of the quantitative easing program. The relative stabilization of inflation in the region of 2.0% was the reason for curtailing the action of the program of quantitative easing. Now, inflation is confidently going down, and has returned to those values when the European Central Bank even rejected the very idea of tightening monetary policy parameters. In other words, a slowdown in inflation from 1.3% to 1.0%, suggests that the European Central Bank will not only once again postpone consideration of raising the refinancing rate in the middle of next year, but will probably seriously think about a new easing of parameters monetary policy.

Exchange Rates 20.08.2019 analysis

So it is not surprising that the single European currency is under pressure. especially if you remember that the text of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be published tomorrow. Considering the fact that the decision to raise the refinancing rate was not unanimous, there is practically no doubt that the text of the minutes will contain almost unambiguous indications that one should not expect another reduction in the refinancing rate from the Federal Reserve. Against this background, growing fears that the European Central Bank will soften its monetary policy will obviously continue to put pressure on the single European currency. It is these thoughts that will prevail in the market today. Although the movement will not be strong, as investors still prefer to wait for the publication of the text of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting

Exchange Rates 20.08.2019 analysis

The EUR/USD pair, forming a pullback after the inertial move, reached a periodic level of 1.1100, where it felt resistance and as a fact the recovery process took place. Considering everything that is happening in general terms, we see that the current pullback, after all, could serve as a regrouping of trading forces in terms of restoring the inertial course and as a fact of the main downward trend.

It is likely to suggest that the quote focuses on the local low of 1.1066, the coordinates in this case is the reference for the inertial motion's recovery. It is worth considering that there is a characteristic alertness and a temporary fluctuation of 1.1070/1.1110, and should not be excluded from possible development. The most acceptable tactics are considered in terms of the breakdown of key values of 1.1066/1.1120.

Specifying all of the above in trading signals:

• We consider long positions in terms of a corrective move, where in case the price consolidates higher than 1.1120, you can consider the move to 1.1150.

• We consider short positions in the plan as a continuation of the inertial move, where in case the price consolidates below the local low of 1.1066, we will have a path to the psychological level of 1.1000 (+/- 30 points).

As we can see, trading recommendations are considered from the same angle, due to a slight change in quotations in the past day.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that indicators are prone to further decline at all the main time intervals. It is worth considering such a moment that in the event of a deceleration within the current fluctuation, indicators for shorter periods can be misleading with variable signals.

Exchange Rates 20.08.2019 analysis

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Performed by Dean Leo,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019
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