GBP/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair made a consolidation under the side corridor, which allows us to count on a drop in quotes. However, the downward trend line that operated during yesterday's day did not withstand the onslaught of the bulls. However, the growth process was not continued. The pair's quotes again performed a reversal in favor of the US currency, which allowed me to build a new downward trend line. At the moment, the pound/dollar pair is again approaching this line and intends to close above it. If the quotes are fixed above this line, I believe that the pound will not get additional chances to grow. But a rebound from the trend line will work in favor of the US currency and some fall. And this end can be used as a signal to sell.
GBP/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair left the area of no trend, indicated by a blue rectangle, but it did not go far from it. The corrective level of 50.0% (1.2303) was fixed, but it did not continue the process of falling. Bullish divergence in the CCI indicator allowed the pair to perform a reversal in favor of the British and return to the Fibo level of 50.0%. The rebound of quotes on April 7 from this level will again work in favor of the dollar and some fall in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2% (1.2095). Fixing the pair's exchange rate above the Fibo level of 50.0% will increase the probability of further growth towards the next corrective level of 61.8% (1.2516). New divergences on April 7 are not brewing for any indicator.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and anchored under the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.2327). Thus, the fall in quotes can be continued in the direction of the next corrective level of 100.0% (1.1959). The information background now does not support either bulls or bears. And, in principle, it cannot now be described as "important" or even "present". Boris Johnson was hospitalized yesterday as his condition worsened during self-isolation due to a coronavirus infection.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a false breakdown of the lower trend line. Thus, until the pair's quotes are fixed under this line, there is a high probability of growth in the direction of the two upper trend lines. This is the only chart that tends to increase the pair. But since it is long-term, the option with a fall and a further resumption of growth is allowed.
Overview of fundamentals:
No economic reports were released in the UK on Monday. All the news related to new cases of COVID-2019 virus, as well as the hospitalization of Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
News calendar for the US and UK:
As of April 7, the UK and US news calendar does not contain any important reports or events.
Today, traders will again have nothing to pay attention to.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
On Friday, a new COT report was released and it again showed a reduction in the total number of contracts in the hands of major market players. Long positions lost 15,000, and short positions - 14,000. Thus, the British pound continues to lose interest from major players. The greater the number of contracts that are concentrated in the hands of major players - long positions. However, the advantage is small. Since the report covers the last date of March 31 (the date when the next growth process ended), it is now more likely that the quotes will fall. Speculators, by the way, do not like the British pound at all. The number of contracts concentrated in the hands of the "Non-commercial" group is extremely low. Speculators do not consider the pound an attractive currency for profit.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:
I believe that today we should consider selling the British dollar with a target of 1.2095. However, to do this, you need to get at least two signals: a break from the trend line on the hourly chart, and a break from the level of 1.2303 on the 4-hour chart. I believe that buying is not advisable now, since there is no signal for them, and the potential growth, from my point of view, is very weak for the British.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
