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01.08.202123:08 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on August 2. Analysis of Friday. Getting ready for Monday

Analysis of previous deals:

30M chart of the EUR/USD pair

Exchange Rates 01.08.2021 analysis

Last Friday, the EUR/USD pair tried to continue the upward movement that began about a week ago, but in the afternoon it still retreated. It should be noted right away that this week there were quite a large number of important macroeconomic reports and fundamental events. Starting with the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, ending with a whole package of important reports published on Friday in the European Union. But at the same time, the volatility of the currency pair remained quite low all these days. For example, last Thursday, a little more than 40 points were passed, and on Friday – about 50. And this is in the presence, as I have already said, of quite important reports and events. And so the markets continue to ignore macroeconomic reports. On the same Friday, the European Union published data on unemployment, inflation and GDP. These are the most important indicators of the state of almost any economy. However, traders did not react to these reports, although the results were quite strong and exceeded the forecasts of traders. As a result, 2 signals were even formed on the 30-minute timeframe, the first of which was from MACD to buy and turned out to be false, and the second was a rebound from the 1.1851 level, which is duplicated on the 5-minute timeframe. According to the signal from the MACD, novice traders could open long positions, since the indicator was previously discharged to zero, but the upward movement did not last long, so the deal should be closed when the indicator turned down, in zero profit.

5M chart of the EUR/USD pair

Exchange Rates 01.08.2021 analysis

Last Friday, the EUR/USD pair tried to continue the upward movement that began about a week ago, but in the afternoon it still retreated. It should be noted right away that this week there were quite a large number of important macroeconomic reports and fundamental events. Starting with the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, ending with a whole package of important reports published on Friday in the European Union. But at the same time, the volatility of the currency pair remained quite low all these days. For example, last Thursday, a little more than 40 points were passed, and on Friday – about 50. And this is in the presence, as I have already said, of quite important reports and events. And so the markets continue to ignore macroeconomic reports. On the same Friday, the European Union published data on unemployment, inflation and GDP. These are the most important indicators of the state of almost any economy. However, traders did not react to these reports, although the results were quite strong and exceeded the forecasts of traders. As a result, 2 signals were even formed on the 30-minute timeframe, the first of which was from MACD to buy and turned out to be false, and the second was a rebound from the 1.1851 level, which is duplicated on the 5-minute timeframe. According to the signal from the MACD, novice traders could open long positions, since the indicator was previously discharged to zero, but the upward movement did not last long, so the deal should be closed when the indicator turned down, in zero profit.

Trading tips for Monday:

On the 30-minute timeframe, the price finally managed to leave the horizontal channel and form a kind of trend. A rising trend line has appeared, but its angle of inclination is low. Therefore, it is hardly worth expecting that the price will often fall to it in order to rebound. In general, the euro/dollar pair is facing low volatility, which greatly complicates the trading process. Thus, formally, it is now possible to consider buy signals from the MACD indicator, but this should be done as carefully as possible. On the 5-minute timeframe, it is recommended to trade from the levels 1,1802, 1,1831, 1,1851, 1,1880, 1,1912, 1,1921. Take Profit, as before, we set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15-20 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level, if it is not located too close or too far away. If you are located – then you should act according to the situation. On Monday, business activity indices in the manufacturing sectors will be published in the United States and the European Union. However, on Thursday and Friday, much more important reports were ignored by traders. Thus, the probability of working off these is small.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

*Analiza de piață publicată aici este menită să vă sporească conștientizarea, nu pentru a oferi instrucțiuni pentru a efectua un schimb.

Paolo Greco,
Expert analitic al companiei InstaForex
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