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Not so long ago, traders were surprised by the Fed’s confusion about the banking crisis. Notably, the regulator is still searching for ways to settle the issue. Today, the US Department of Justice has launched an investigation into the Credit Swiss collapse. It supposes that Russian oligarchs could be involved in the situation.
Meanwhile, such news made traders avoid risk assets, thus causing a decline in the European currencies.
In addition, the eurozone has published a bulk of macroeconomic data today.
Today, the UK disclosed its retail sales report, which unveiled a slower decline of 3.5% compared to 5.2% in the previous period. On a monthly basis, retail sales increased by 1.2%, manifesting the most considerable rise in the last four months. The indicator returned to the levels recorded before the pandemic, in February 2020. However, this positive information failed to support the pound sterling which has been falling since the beginning of the trading day.
What is more, the situation remained the same even after the publication of the preliminary figures on the eurozone PMI. The data significantly exceeded the forecast (54.1 points).
The composite PMI showed the fastest growth since May 2022. The jump could be explained by the fact that the services PMI showed the biggest rise in the last ten months. This, in turn, offset a decline in the manufacturing sector. Economists emphasize a revival in the financial services and real estate sectors despite instability in the banking sector.
However, traders did not react to the data as they were waiting for the same reports from the UK. The data turned out to be well below the forecast. In particular, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.0 points instead of climbing to 49.9 points. The services PMI also slid to 52.8 points from 53.5 points. According to the forecast, it should have decreased to 52.7 points. In any case, the composite PMI fell to 52.2 points from 53.1 points, whereas economists had foreseen a decline to 52.9 points.
The euro and the pound sterling are likely to go on falling until the end of the day if forecasts on the US PMI meet reality. Data on the services sector is of higher importance. The indicator is expected to grow to 51.0 points. Meanwhile, the composite PMI may shrink to 47.0 points. However, its decline is smaller than the rise in the services sector. What is more, its influence on the overall situation is 4 times lower compared to the services PMI. In other words, a drop in the manufacturing sector will hardly affect traders’ sentiment.
Since the beginning of the week, the euro added more than 250 pips against the US dollar, thus reaching the peak of the upward cycle. Such a considerable change led to an inertial movement, which caused a technical signal of overbought conditions. As a result, the volume of long positions dropped, thus launching a bounce.
The euro dropped below 1.0800, which could be defined as a correction after the recent growth. Although the price has changed, traders remained interested in long positions. That is why if the price climbs above 1.0800, the number of long positions may surge. Until then, the price will continue its correction process.
Meanwhile, the pound/dollar pair inched down after touching the resistance level of 1.2300. Nevertheless, the market sentiment remains bullish. This is proved by almost full recovery of the pound sterling after a slump in February.
The bounce may be considered a part of the change in the market sentiment. If the price exceeds 1.2300, traders will get a signal of a rise in the
number of long positions. This, in turn, may lead to the continuation of the
upward cycle, thus allowing the pair to reach a new high of the mid-term trend.
The downtrend will be considered by traders if the price settles below 1.2200 on the daily chart.
That’s all for now. We keep monitoring the financial market situation. Subscribe to our channel. See you in several hours. We will take a close look at the US trading session.
00:41 UK Retail Sales Change
01:20 Euro zone composite PMI
02:03 UK PMI
02:51 Pound weakening trend with the single European currency
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