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Long-term review

Demand for safe haven assets decreased ahead of Friday's New York open with gold, the Swiss franc and yen are all losing ground.

USD/JPY has advanced to highs at 106.50 before fading to 106.35 while USD/CHF has moved above 0.9800 and gold has retreated to below $1,513 per ounce.

US equity futures have surged by nearly 1.0% while Treasuries have retreated with the 10-year yield just above 1.55%.

Bonds were heavily overbought after recent huge gains and underlying risk conditions have stabilised to some extent.

In comments on Wednesday, ECB council member Rehn stated that the central bank needed to announce a substantial package at the September meeting with an interest rate cut and resumption of larger-scale bond purchases.

The comments are unlikely to have been made without backing from the key ECB members including President Draghi.

The comments have undermined the euro, but there has also been a shift in sentiment with greater optimism that global central banks will ease monetary policy in an aggressive manner to prop up the global economy.

In this context, the sense of panic which enveloped markets in mid-week has faded to some extent. Risk aversion sentiment has also eased slightly, thus dending demand for safe haven assets.

There are still grave risks, especially given the threat of verbal interventions from President Trump. In the short term, however, Trump is likely to be more concerned with attempts to stabilise Wall Street. So, he is likely to make comments with market-friendly rhetoric.

The White House calls on the Fed to cut interest rates deeper, although this rhetoric may also be seen as supporting risk appetite.

There are still important event risks surrounding the weekend, especially with political pressures which could spark off again in Hong Kong.

USD/JPY can extend gains, although tough resistance is expected on approach to 106.70 ahead of Friday's close. USD/JPY rally is waning on approach to 106.70. So, get ready to buy on dips since early next week.

*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.

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Tim Clayton,
Analitickog eksperta
InstaForex grupa kompanija © 2007-2019
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