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Long-term review

Investors kept demand for the US dollar after the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve on monetary policy was published on Wednesday. It is important to note that in the event, the leaders of the Federal Reserve pointed to optimism about the US economy and further increase of interest rates.

Given that the ECB report did not clarify any adjustments to further policies, the pressure on the euro persisted in the afternoon.

Data on the labor market also supported the US dollar. According to the report of the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week of April 1 to 7 decreased by 9,000 and amounted to 233,000. Such data is a very good indicator for the Fed, as they indicate a stable state of the labor market.

Exchange Rates 13.04.2018 analysis

On the afternoon of Thursday, Fed spokesman Neel Kashkari, introduced a little negativity in the overall picture. Kashkari claimed that until he saw a significant increase in wages in the US, it is unclear whether full employment is achieved in the US economy or not.

As for the trade wars, the representative of the FRS is confident that the US should make China more open to Chinese markets, as the US economy remains the world's largest economy that's enjoying investors' trust.

Kashkari is also convinced of the rightly chosen course of taxes and increased budget spending in the US, which in the future will bring inflation closer to the target level of the Fed.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, we see how the sellers did their best to reverse the previous upward trend, and they managed to do it. Today, all the emphasis will be placed around the resistance level of 1.2340, the struggle for which can continue all day. In case of a re-wave of the euro's decline, there is no need to put yesterday's low on a bigger break, as after its update there is technical support in the area of 1.2290, from which the market can quickly turn in the opposite direction.

The Australian dollar continued to strengthen its positions against the US dollar after the statements were made by the Reserve Bank of Australia regarding the risks to the economy from the housing market, which are now slightly weakened. Despite this, some banks report an increase in overdue debt on mortgage loans.

The RBA is also confident that the situation in the global economy remains favorable, but noted the presence of increased risks associated with the financial system of China.

*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.

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Eder Anderson,
Analitickog eksperta
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