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19.10.201817:12 Overview of the currency market on 10/19/2018

Long-term review

The dollar continues its victorious march, and yesterday, it was not the Brexit negotiations that supported it, but macroeconomic statistics and statements about the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System. So, the worst result for the day showed a pound, but not because of uncertainty about the trade agreement with the European Union, but because of the incredibly weak data on consumer activity. After inflation in the UK slowed down unexpectedly, investors pinned their hopes on retail sales, but their growth rates did not accelerate from 3.4% to 3.6%, but slowed down to 3.0%. So, in the British economy, everything is rather sad, as both inflation and retail sales are declining, so it's not clear how economic growth will be ensured. In the USA, very good data on the labor market came out, since the total number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 18 thousand, while they expected a decrease of only 1 thousand. which decreased by 13 thousand with an expected growth of 2 thousand. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 5 thousand, which is slightly better than the forecast of 3 thousand. The speech of James Bullard was also interesting, since for many his words turned out to be a surprise. Indeed, due to a sharp slowdown in inflation, the Fed was waiting for at least some reaction, but a representative of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations confirmed that the regulator does not intend to revise its plans based on data in just one month. So, we are waiting for the refinancing rate to increase in December, and three more times next year. Although he noted concerns about inflation and added that the Fed will monitor developments.

Exchange Rates 19.10.2018 analysis

In Europe, no data comes out, so that all attention to the American statistics, which can stop the triumphant procession of the dollar. The fact is those home sales in the secondary market may decline by 0.7%. Of course, this is not such significant data, but given the serious growth of the dollar in recent days, as well as the absence of other news, market participants will clearly want to take profits. So, the single European currency has every chance of rising to 1.1475.

Exchange Rates 19.10.2018 analysis

The pound, on the other hand, has much more reasons for growth, since, besides the same factors that will affect the single European currency, it will be supported by domestic British data. In particular, of interest are data on public sector borrowing, which should increase by 4.6 billion pounds compared to 5.9 billion pounds in the previous month. That is, the growth rate of public sector borrowing is declining, which will be regarded as a reasonable move in the face of uncertainty about the trade agreement between the UK and the European Union. Thus, it is worth waiting for the growth of the pound to 1.3075.

Exchange Rates 19.10.2018 analysis

With the ruble, the situation is somewhat different, since, unlike many other currencies, it held up well. This happened because of the tax period, which supported the ruble. After all, companies can receive profits in anything, but the Federal Tax Service takes taxes only in rubles. This factor gradually fades into the background, and since the ruble did not show any particular aspirations for growth, then it is worth waiting for its weakening. The situation is heated by the words of Elvira Nabiullina. The Chairman of the Board of the Bank of Russia said that, if necessary, the regulator will maintain market stability through interventions, including OFZ purchases. In other words, the Bank of Russia does not exclude the possibility of panic in the market, which could lead to a strong weakening of the ruble. Such statements by themselves do not add confidence to market participants, which will have a negative impact on the ruble. So today, it is worth waiting for the growth of the dollar to 66.00 rubles.

*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.

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Mark Bom,
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