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4-hour timeframe

Exchange Rates 17.05.2019 analysis

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 41p – 42p – 43p – 47p – 58p.

The average amplitude over the last 5 days: 46p (50p).

The main indicator of the consumer price index in the eurozone for April was fully consistent with the forecasts of experts and amounted to +1.7% in annual terms and +0.7% in monthly terms. Only the basic consumer price index was higher than market expectations and amounted to +1.3% y/y. However, as we can see, this rather important report did not bring any changes to the current trend. The euro is still prone to fall, and the reaction to today's inflation report from traders was not even followed. Thus, we continue to draw the attention of traders to the fact that now in the first place are clearly technical factors. Namely: the non-renewal of the previous local maximum, frankly a downward trend in 2019, and the weakness of the bulls. If we add to this the absence of a positive fundamental background from Europe, it becomes clear that the path of the euro is one – to the South. Just moving down the pair will not be as fast and zealous as the pound. Now, we expect the EUR/USD pair to decline to 1.1100, but most likely the pair will go below this level. In a few hours, the US will publish a fairly important index of consumer confidence of the University of Michigan. It is expected that the value for May will exceed April. Thus, at the US session on Friday, May 17, the US dollar may receive additional support. The volatility of the instrument remains low. The downward movement is not recoilless, therefore, intraday positions are not entirely rational. The best time of deals for the pair is now 2-3 days. During this time, the pair can pass at least 70-100 points.

Trading recommendations:

The pair EUR/USD resumed its downward movement. Therefore, it is still recommended to consider sell positions with the targets at 1.1131 and 1.1118 and before the MACD indicator turns upwards.

It will be possible to return to buy positions if traders manage to consolidate back above the critical line. In this case, the first target for the long positions will be the resistance level of 1.1268.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-Sen – red line.

Kijun-Sen – blue line.

Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B – light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.

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Paolo Greco,
Analitickog eksperta
InstaForex grupa kompanija © 2007-2019
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