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13.06.201909:13 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of GBP/USD on June 13. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". Boris Johnson does not support exit from the EU without a "deal"

4-hour timeframe

Exchange Rates 13.06.2019 analysis

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: -60.6781

On June 13, the pound began to fall again, and the GBP/USD pair strengthened below the moving average line. Thus, there are reasons to expect a resumption of the downward trend. The strengthening of the US dollar was surprising paired with the euro, but in the pair with the pound, from our point of view, everything is justified. The fact is that traders are not primarily looking at macroeconomic statistics from the US, but at the promotion of the Brexit procedure, at election statements and promises of candidates for the post of leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister. And it should be said that there are no special advances in Brexit. Boris Johnson, who recently supported the "hard" Brexit, suddenly changed his rhetoric and now believes that Brexit without a "deal" is not needed, and he wants to hold new negotiations with the European Union. However, there was still no official information from the European Union on the readiness to change the current version of the agreement. At the same time, Finance Minister Philip Hammond believes that Johnson's campaign promises are not feasible. He said that until October 31, Johnson's plan is unlikely to be implemented, and it's hardly beneficial for the future of Great Britain to "the movement to the edge of the abyss at full speed." Thus, Hammond has made it clear that he is opposed to haste in the matter of "divorce" from the EU and does not support an unordered exit from the EU. And all this means the same as before. The UK government lacks unity on the most important issues. Members of the government even among themselves cannot agree on which option of withdrawal from the EU should be followed. Uncertainty is only added every day, which does not contribute to the strengthening of the pound.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2665

S2 – 1.2634

S3 – 1.2604

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2695

R2 – 1.2726

R3 – 1.2756

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP/USD broke the moving average, so now short positions with targets 1.2665 and 1.2634 are recommended again.

It is recommended to buy the pound after securing the pound/dollar pair above the moving average line with the first targets at 1.2756 and 1.2787, but with very small lots.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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