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19.09.201909:32 Hot forecast for GBP / USD on 09/19/2019 and trading recommendation

Jerome Powell really surprised everyone, somewhat entering the market into confusion and stupor. On the one hand, the Federal Committee for Open Market Operations has decided to lower the refinancing rate from 2.25% to 2.00%, so to speak, meeting the expectations of an innumerable army of exchange speculators. For them, the cost of funding is now slightly reduced. However, this decision itself did not lead to any large-scale movements, since it coincided with most forecasts and expectations. Thus, the market began to wait for Jerome Powell to speak. But the head of the Federal Reserve System during his press conference, in fact, knocked out the feet of all those who advocate easing monetary policy, as he said that the reasons for lowering the refinancing rate are purely external and the state of the American economy is not a concern. Moreover, he added that the Federal Reserve does not see any signs of a recession. In other words, the current decrease in the refinancing rate is caused solely by a further aggravation of the trade conflict with China, as well as by the actions of the European Central Bank. At the same time, one should not expect more easing of monetary policy, since the regulator took into account external factors, but there are simply no internal ones.

Exchange Rates 19.09.2019 analysis

In the light of such decisions of the Federal Reserve System, today's meeting of the Board of the Bank of England is of particular interest. It is clear that until Brexit is finally done, Mark Carney will not touch the refinancing rate with his finger, as well as the other parameters of monetary policy. To some extent, this is a good indicator of stability, but bordering on cowardice. However, since both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve are lowering their rates, the preservation of the Bank of England monetary policy parameters looks like a positive factor for the pound. True, the pound is pressed not only by political factors in the form of an endless political impasse in the United Kingdom, but also by macroeconomic statistics, which are not particularly encouraging. In particular, data on retail sales will be published today. The growth rate of which should slow down from 3.3% to 2.9%. Thus, the positive from the decision of the Bank of England will obviously be limited and short.

Retail Sales Growth Rate (UK):

Exchange Rates 19.09.2019 analysis

The GBP / USD pair found the resistance level in the region of 1.2500 once again, where the quotation worked out and, as a fact, a minor pullback. The development of quotes in the phase of elongated correction has led us to a gradual slowdown, which we now see on the trading chart. Accumulation within 1.2440 / 1.2500 significantly reduced volatility and, as a fact, leaving traders out of the market. Considering the trading chart in general terms, we see that the corrective move is maintained on the market with a resistance point in the face of the level of 1.2500. Meanwhile, a change in the global trend is not currently observed.

It is likely to assume that the amplitude fluctuation within 1.2440 / 1.2500 (+/- 20p.) will still continue for some time, where it is possible to work inside the boundaries, but there is not much point in this. Thus, the breakdown tactics in this case is a priority.

We concretize all of the above into trading signals:

  • Long positions are considered in the case of price fixing higher than 1.2500 (+ 20p).
  • Short positions are considered in the case of price fixing lower than 1.2430.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that indicators at minute intervals took a neutral position. On the other hand, intraday and medium-term periods reflect a corrective move - upward interest.

Exchange Rates 19.09.2019 analysis

*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.

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Dean Leo,
Analitickog eksperta
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