GBP/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a fall to the correction level of 61.8% (1.2836). Thus, the rebound of the pair from this level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the British pound and the resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% (1.3044). However, as in the case of the euro/dollar pair, I think it is more likely to close under the Fibo level of 61.8% and further fall in the direction of the correction level of 50.0% (1.2668). The bearish divergence of the MACD indicator marked the beginning of a fall in quotes.
The epic with Brexit continues, and the optimism of traders gradually disappears. The Brexit "No Deal" may not exist in the coming months, but there will be no other Brexit either. The UK is still unable to turn this page in its history and start a new one. Not only the pound sterling remains in limbo, but also a huge number of companies, factories, enterprises, concerns, businessmen and ordinary workers. And in general, for the whole country and its national currency, this is again a negative factor. In recent weeks, the pound has risen on the decline in the probability of Brexit "No Deal". But what's next? This topic has already exhausted itself, the activity of traders is declining, and the pound is no longer growing on the news that the Parliament rejected Boris Johnson's request to consider his bill by agreement with the European Union as soon as possible. That is the Parliament told Johnson: we will consider the document of the agreement with the European Union for as long as it takes. Thus, it is unlikely that the review will be completed before October 31. Consequently, Brexit will be postponed, and the deputies will continue to get acquainted with Boris Johnson's ingenious plan, which is almost identical to Theresa May's deal. Since the Parliament did not take any final decision by agreement with the EU, any deputy can initiate a vote for the rejection of this document. I believe that this is the end of it, as several opposition parties almost immediately said that this deal is no different from Theresa May's agreement, moreover, in some moments, it is even worse than her. Also, the opposition has a clear goal – a second referendum, and there is no doubt that this is what Jeremy Corbyn and the company will now seek.
Thus, with such an information background, I believe that nothing prevents traders from returning to the sales of the pound, especially since the current levels look very attractive for the sales of the pair. There is simply no reason for the British currency to grow again. And shortly, their appearance is not even expected, since neither Boris Johnson nor the deputies will have time to do anything new. Well, in the future, I believe, there will be confrontations of opinions. The Prime Minister will promote the idea of early elections, the opposition – the idea of holding a second referendum. These wars can last as long as you want. By the way, Brussels can offer London a longer option of postponing Brexit, as Europeans are tired of considering this issue every few months.
What to expect from the pound/dollar currency pair today?
The pound/dollar pair fell to the correction level of 61.8%. I am waiting for quotes to close below this level today, as I believe that the upward momentum has exhausted itself. The information background today will again consist only in the news from the Parliament and the Prime Minister.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of March 13, 2019, and September 3, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
I recommend buying the pair with a target of 1.3044 if the rebound from the Fibo level of 61.8% with the stop-loss order below the level of 1.2836 is performed.
I recommend considering selling the pair with the target of 1.2668 if the consolidation under the Fibo level of 61.8% is performed.
