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From the point of view of complex analysis, we see a touch of an important level, where the price stopped and formed an impulse move, and now let's talk about the details. Correctional movement from historical lows [1.1411 / 1.1450] led the quote back to the area of interaction of trade forces 1.1957 // 1.2000 // 1.2150, a rebound of more than 300 points was formed without excessive slowing down.

What reflects the area of interaction of trade forces 1.1957 // 1.2000 // 1.2150?

This is a kind of mirror level, which has not one value, but several, reflecting the area of interaction of trading forces, where the price feels increased pressure and as a fact slows down, forming a rebound. In our case, this area reflects an important place in the market, where the minimum of previous periods was located before the formation of a new minimum [1.1411/1.1450].

The forecast in the previous review coincided. The quote felt pressure and as soon as the price was fixed lower than 1.1850, we got the most optimal entry point, going down to the area of 1.1660.

After the downward rally, a reverse move occurred, returning the quote to the area of 1.1850, which was a signal that dollar positions were unstable and speculators were using it.

Regarding the theory of further development, we are still inclined to the fact that the downward trend will continue in the long term. Now, in connection with the escalation of the external background, in particular of the COVID-19 virus, we can see local movements, including in the upward direction. This will be due to the fact that the consequences of the pandemic will affect everyone without exception, thereby making it most logical in this situation to work on the existing market, that is, in local operations. I repeat that, when viewed globally, the outlook for the growth of the dollar compared to the pound is higher.

In terms of volatility, we see that the past day was the most active since the beginning of the week, having a fluctuation of 333 points, which is 103% higher than the average daily indicator. Having such significant activity, it becomes clear that local operations, as discussed above, are justified and can bring sufficient income.

Details of volatility: Monday - 165 points; Tuesday - 245 points; Wednesday - 172 points; Thursday - 358 points; Friday - 359 points; Monday - 144 points; Tuesday - 271 points; Wednesday - 676 points; Thursday - 354 points; Friday - 522 points; Monday - 267 points; Tuesday - 296 points; Wednesday - 333 points. The average daily indicator, relative to the dynamics of volatility is 164 points [see table of volatility at the end of the article].

Detailing the past minute by minute, we quickly saw three flashes of activity: UP - 7:15-8:45 [UCT+00 touching the area of interaction of trade forces 1.1957 // 1.2000 // 1.2150]; DOWN - 9:00-14:15 [UCT+00 touching the level of 1.1660]; UP - 14:30-19:15 [UCT+00 price return to the level of 1.1850].

As discussed in a previous review, traders considered short positions in case of price fixing lower than 1.1850.

The recommendation from Wednesday coincided, having a solid profit on high activity.

[We consider selling positions in case of price fixing lower than 1.1850 with the prospect of a movement to 1.1660.]

Considering the trading chart in general terms [the daily period], we see the correction course in the structure of inertial movement. Regarding Fibo lines, the price is between the levels of 23.6 and 38.2 (yellow lines) in the chart.

The news background of the past day contained inflation data in the United Kingdom, where it recorded a decline from 1.8% to 1.7%. The main impulse for the local growth of the pound was that they expected a decrease in inflation to 1.5%. In the afternoon, data on orders for durable goods in the United States will be published, where they were waiting for the next reduction of 0.7%, but received an increase of up to + 1.2% in the end. This has become a kind of support for the local strengthening of the dollar.

In terms of informational background, we see panic everywhere. The coronavirus continues to conquer new heights, and according to the British government, those infected with coronavirus in the country over the past Wednesday grew to 9,529 confirmed cases, 463 people died. The consequences of the pandemic are still ahead of us, where the UK economy is already going through hard times with Brexit, and not only statistical data, but also citizens of the country will feel the blow from the coronavirus in all areas of the economy. At the same time, one should not forget that the crisis of the consequences of the COVID-19 virus will affect the whole world, and if we look at the current data on unemployment applications in the United States which are published today, then the shock of the labor market appears.

So, the initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US should grow from 281,000 to 1,090,000, and history has not yet seen such indicators. That is, the theory that the labor market will collapse soon does not look like a theory, but as a possible fact.

Today data on Britain was already published, where industrial production in February fell by 22.3%, while retail sales over the past month fell by 0.3%, the previous figure was 1.1%. Retail Sales (YoY): 0.9% ---> 0.00%

Exchange Rates 26.03.2020 analysis

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see price fluctuations relative to the level of 1.1850, where the temporary range at the time of writing was 1.1815 / 1.1915. In fact, we see price retention above the level of [1.1850] where the quote tends to return to its previous highs in the form of the peak of the past day. This factor suggests that pressure is coming from both sides and if you make a reference to the fact that the data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be shocking, then the chance of a price return to a peak of 1.1972 and higher is available on the market. In any case, now that the quote has already overcome the morning range, it is better to consider local positions already above 1.1972 [purchase.] An alternative scenario will come from two factors: the first in the case of regular pressure in the region of 1.2000 / 1.2050, where at shorter periods we enter local positions for sale;

From the point of view of the emotional mood of market participants, we see such a strong panic that the volatility even at the start of trading is above all norms. Do not wait for a decrease in the pace of activity in the near future.

Exchange Rates 26.03.2020 analysis

Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of time frames (TF), we see that due to the high activity, the indicators of technical tools in the minute and hour periods jump together with the market. While the daily periods still signal the main course.

Exchange Rates 26.03.2020 analysis

Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 26 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)

The volatility of the current time is 183 points, which already exceeds by 11% the average daily indicator and this at the beginning of the European session. It can be assumed that activity will continue to grow and external factors will continue to be stimulus factors.

Exchange Rates 26.03.2020 analysis

Key levels

Resistance zones: 1.2000 *** (1.1957); 1.2150 **; 1.2350 **; 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2725 *; 1.2770 **; 1.2885 *; 1.3000; 1.3170 **; 1.3300 **; 1.3600; 1.3850; 1.4000 ***; 1.4350 **.

Support Areas 1.1850; 1.1660; 1.1450 (1.1411); 1.1300; 1,1000; 1.0800; 1.0500; 1.0000.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

*** Psychological level

**** The article is built on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment

*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.

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Gven Podolsky,
Analitickog eksperta
InstaForex grupa kompanija © 2007-2020
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