31.03.202014:06 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD as of March 31, 2020

Today's review of the main currency pair will start with the macroeconomic data that was published the day before. Naturally, the topic of COVID-19 has not disappeared and is still relevant to global financial platforms. I wish it would all end sooner, or at least go downhill. However, as most virologists assume, the peak of the coronavirus will be in April, which will begin tomorrow.

Today is the last trading day for March. We will see the monthly chart tomorrow, after closing. Usually, the last day of the month is quite difficult for trading. The warring parties usually fight fiercely for the closing price of each month, resulting in sharp multidirectional movements in the market. This information is for those who are new to the market and do not yet know all the details or do not attach importance to them. In this regard, I can say that absolutely no one knows all the subtleties. Everyone makes mistakes. This is the essence of the market — some lose money, others earn it.

If we go back to yesterday's statistics, the data from the eurozone came out ambiguous. The business sentiment index was worse than the forecast value. It would seem that in the current conditions of COVID-19 distribution around the world, this is not surprising. What else can be the mood in business circles when the vast majority of businesses are closed and quarantined? At the moment, the world economy is virtually paralyzed, but according to experts, the peak of the epidemic has not yet passed.

But so far, in my opinion, these are only the first negative echoes of the coronavirus on statistics. This is indicated by data on economic sentiment, as well as the index of business optimism in the industry, which yesterday exceeded the forecast values and came out in the green zone.

As for statistics from the US, the report on pending home sales significantly exceeded the expectations of economists. However, as some of them believe, housing began to enjoy increased demand even before the rampant pandemic in the United States.

Regarding today's macroeconomic data, it is worth paying attention to the data on the German labor market, as well as the consumer price index in the euro area.

From the US reports, we highlight the S&P housing price index, the Chicago purchasing managers' index, and another index on consumer confidence. In my opinion, it is the most important of today's American statistics.

It's time to move on to the price charts, and let's start with the daily timeframe.


Exchange Rates 31.03.2020 analysis

The candle that appeared at the end of yesterday's trading is a reversal model of the "Harami" candle analysis. Moreover, this model is bearish, so it is not surprising that the pair is aimed at a decline today.

Data on unemployment in the largest economy of the eurozone came out good, better than forecast values. Thus, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Germany was 5%, although analysts' expectations were reduced to 5.1%. The change in the number of unemployed significantly exceeded expectations of 29 and in fact amounted to 1. But the consumer price index in the eurozone was worse than forecasts, even by 0.1%. It is important to understand that the CPI data for the currency block is preliminary. It's possible that the final numbers, given the COVID-19 epidemic, could be even worse.

Perhaps it is the negative reports on consumer prices that have undermined the single currency today. Although technically everything is justified. The decrease is due to the development of the "Harami" reversal model.


Exchange Rates 31.03.2020 analysis

Let's go straight to the hourly chart because there are more interesting and significant events taking place there. As you can see, at the end of the review, the pair goes down from the ascending channel and breaks through its support line. However, it is too early to draw conclusions about the truth of the breakdown. In my opinion and long-term observations, the euro/dollar needs to be fixed under the lower border of the channel with three consecutive hourly candles.

If this happens, the breakout with a high probability can be considered true and sell the euro/dollar on the rollback to the broken support line of the channel. This is the price zone of 1.0945-1.0970, where in addition to the lower border of the channel, there are 200 EMA and 38.2 Fibo level from the decline of 1.1146-1.0636. Along with truly broken support for the ascending channel, both the 38.2 Fibo and 200 exponential can provide serious resistance to growth attempts.

At the moment, I consider sales to be the main trading idea for the EUR/USD pair.

Although, if a bullish reversal candle or candles appear near 1.0890, you can try to buy, however, for now, it is better with small goals. The same applies to sales. The market situation and investor sentiment at this stage of time are subject to sharp changes.

Good luck!

*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.

Ivan Aleksandrov,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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