03.07.202015:30 Pregled Forex analiza: Stock markets are disappointing in Europe, but rose in US and Asia

Exchange Rates 03.07.2020 analysis

US stock markets showed good growth towards the close of trading yesterday. The reason for the positive was statistics regarding the employment market in the country. It came out much better than what the experts expected in their preliminary forecasts.

Yesterday, one day earlier, statistics released by the US Department of Labor came out due to the holiday. As it became known, there were significantly more jobs in the country in June of this year. A record increase in this indicator was noted (immediately by 4.8 million). The unemployment rate in the state also declined sharply (to the level of 11.1%), while the rate in April of this year was at the maximum level of 14.7%. Analysts' preliminary forecasts were much more fair. They assumed that there would be an increase in the number of jobs, but no more than 3 million. Preliminary data on unemployment also reflected its reduction to the level of 12.3%.

The total number of Americans who first applied for unemployment benefits last week declined by 55,000: the current level of this indicator is 1,427 million. This also did not coincide with the forecasts of experts who expected a decline to 1,355 million people. Of course, such good numbers inspired investors in the market.

On the contrary, the trade deficit of the United States of America showed an increase. In May of this year, it reached a level of $ 54.6 billion, while it amounted to $ 49.8 billion according to revised April data, which was the highest value in almost two years. Preliminary expert surveys also reflected an increase in the indicator, only it should have become less significant - minus $ 53 billion. Thus, it became a problem of very good statistics on the American economy.

The number of orders of industrial enterprises in the country has increased by 8%. It can be recalled that previously, a significant decline was recorded (by 13.5% in April and 11% in March). Thus, this was the first growth in the last three months. The change of vector could not go unnoticed by market participants who took this news very positively. Meanwhile, this rise is due to the lifting of quarantine measures in the US states. The current epidemiological situation in the country makes us think about the need to return to restrictions, which will be followed by a decline in the number of orders of enterprises, as was already the case during the first wave of the pandemic.

Today, most analysts warn that, despite the general positive picture, the labor market and other sectors of the economy will not recover at a very fast pace: it will take a lot of time to fully return to normal functioning. Moreover, the emerging second wave of the disease may worsen the already difficult situation. Even more people may lose their job which is their only source of income.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index during yesterday's closing of trading was higher by 0.36%, or 92.39 points, which sent it to the level of 22 827.36 points.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index followed a positive trend and rose 0.45% or 14.15 points. Its level was in the region of 3 130.01 points.

Nasdaq Composite Index showed the best dynamics - plus 0.52%, or 53 points. It managed to complete the trading session with record levels of 10 207.63 points again, but it has not yet reached his maximum, which is located at 10 310.36 points.

Over the past week, US indices have shown good growth. So, the Dow Jones rose by 3.3%, the S&P 500 rose by 4%, and the leader was Nasdaq, which managed to rise by 4.6%.

This morning, stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region playback yesterday's generally good statistics from America, as well as their own data on economic growth, which turned out to be very encouraging. Positivity in the market was supported by data from China.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Index is up by 0.45%.

China's Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.26% in the morning. In turn, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index climbed slightly less - 0.83%.

The Kospi South Korea index also gained positivity this morning (0.67%).

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 0.33%.

Positive statistics from China's territory inspired market participants no less than good data on the US economy.

Thus, the PMI index in the Chinese services sector jumped sharply for the first month of summer, being able to reach its highest levels over the past ten years. The thing is that the same sharp jump in demand occurred after the gradual elimination of the restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The indicator reached the mark of 58.4 points. It can be recalled that it was also at a high level of 55 points in May of this year, and now has updated its maximum. If the indicator rises above 50 points, this becomes evidence of a sharp increase in business activity in this area.

The general index of business activity in China in June also turned out to be on top: it was able to reach 55.7 points, which is also the highest value over the past ten years. In the previous period (in May), its level was in the region of 54.5 points.

All this positivity was able to overshadow a continuous series of negative emotions associated with the active growth in the number of people infected with coronavirus infection both in the United States and the whole world in general.

Today, stock markets in Europe are separated from the positive trend of America and Asia and began to notice a predominantly decline. The reason for the negative phenomenon here was the same notorious possibility of a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, which seriously frightened the local investors.

The general index of enterprises in the European region of Stoxx Europe 600 showed a slight decline of 0.09% in the morning. Now, its level is within 367.95 points.

On the other hand, the UK FTSE 100 index declined by 0.37%. The French CAC index also fell by 0.22%, and Italy's FTSE MIB Index fell 0.36%. The largest decline was recorded in Spain's IBEX 35 index, which declined by 0.65%. But the German DAX index became the only one that went against the negative trend of this morning and became slightly higher - by 0.1%.

The main attention of participants in European markets is focused on the number of people infected with COVID-19 in America. It is growing rapidly, as well as the fears of investors, which are dragging the global decline of the main indicators. Meanwhile, analysts say that this is a temporary phenomenon, since there are more positive factors and they will soon take effect.

Maria Shablon,
Analitickog eksperta
InstaForex grupa kompanija © 2007-2020
Iskoristite preporuke analitičara upravo sada
Dopunite trgovački račun
Otvori trgovački račun

Uz InstaForex-ove analitičke preglede uvek ćete biti u toku sa tržišnim trendovima! Klijentima InstaForex-a su dostupni mnogobrojni besplatni servisi za uspešno trgovanje.

Ne možete da razgovarate sada?
Postavite pitanje kroz ćaskanje.