empty
 
 
06.08.2020 05:04 PM
GBP / USD: Bank of England to still introduce negative rates despite Brexit deal

This image is no longer relevant

Over the past few weeks, the pound sterling was appreciated significantly. This was largely due to the weakening of the greenback's position, but the increased hopes for a positive outcome of the Brexit negotiations also contributed to it.

"A balanced and sustainable deal is still possible, even if it is less ambitious," said Michel Barnier, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator.

The evidence that on a number of controversial issues the positions of the parties began to converge served as a positive signal for the pound bulls. However, currency strategists at Bank of America believe that the reaction in the format "when there is a deal - sterling rises, no deal - the pound falls" looks primitive and does not take into account the nuances.

"The lack of a deal will be disastrous for the pound, especially in the current environment, when the British economy is very slowly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the conclusion of the deal does not guarantee growth for the pound sterling, "the bank's experts noted.

They draw attention to the fact that the rapprochement of positions of London and Brussels on the details of the separation became possible due to a noticeable softening of the requirements of the British side.

"Now everything is moving towards the fact that the deal will be very limited. This implies the restoration of a number of duty-free barriers and a reboot of the United Kingdom's relations with individual EU states. Such a development of events means that even with the conclusion of the deal, the British economy will feel a new blow, which increases the likelihood of further easing of the monetary exchange rate of the Bank of England, which may nevertheless decide to introduce negative interest rates, " BofA experts believe.

The bank revised its forecast for the GBP / USD pair at the end of 2020 downward - from 1.34 to 1.17.

On Thursday, the pound against the US dollar renewed five-month highs in the 1.3184 region.

Most of the pound's gain occurred shortly after the announcement of the results of the next meeting of the Bank of England.

The regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 0.1% and kept the size of the asset purchase program at £ 745 billion.

Commenting on the Central Bank's decision on monetary policy, the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, said that negative interest rates remain one of the possible instruments of monetary policy, but at the moment they are not on the agenda.

"The Bank of England will most likely prefer to refrain from applying a policy of negative interest rates until there is clarity on the issue of EU-UK relations from 2021. Now the derivatives market puts in the quotes the probability that interest rates may go into negative territory early next year, " analysts at ING said.

Viktor Isakov,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2024
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • Chancy Deposit
    Deposit your account with $3,000 and get $1000 more!
    In April we raffle $1000 within the Chancy Deposit campaign!
    Get a chance to win by depositing $3,000 to a trading account. Having fulfilled this condition, you become a campaign participant.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • Trade Wise, Win Device
    Top up your account with at least $500, sign up for the contest, and get a chance to win mobile devices.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • 100% Bonus
    Your unique opportunity to get a 100% bonus on your deposit
    GET BONUS
  • 55% Bonus
    Apply for a 55% bonus on your every deposit
    GET BONUS
  • 30% Bonus
    Receive a 30% bonus every time you top up your account
    GET BONUS

Recommended Stories

Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback