EUR/USD 1H
The technical picture for the euro/dollar pair has not changed much on the hourly timeframe of August 11. The pair traded between the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines throughout the trading day, which are strong lines and are not easy to break through. Traders failed to do this on Tuesday. Thus, the pair is now trapped in a side channel that is bounded by the 1.1911 level on the top and the Senkou Span B line (1.1743) on the bottom. There is also a resistance area of 1.1884-1.1907 on the top, and a support area of 1.1702-1.1727 on the bottom. Thus, we have several important resistances at once both at the top and bottom, and the Kijun-sen line in the middle, from which the price also likes to rebound. Thus, at the moment, the pair can not continue to move down, but there is no need to talk about the resumption of the upward trend now.
EUR/USD 15M
The lower linear regression channel turned up once on the hourly chart on the 15 minute timeframe, the price did not manage to overcome Senkou Span B. The last Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday, showed that the mood of professional traders have not changed for the last week (recall that the report comes with a three-day delay), July 29 - Aug 4. The "non-commercial" category of traders opened 19,354 Buy-contracts and closed 3,561 Sell-contracts during this time period. Thus, the net position for the most important category of traders has grown by 23,000 at once, which is a very large and eloquent indication of the current mood of the major players. The most important thing is that the report exactly matches what is happening in the foreign exchange market, since the euro currency as a whole continued to grow until August 4. The euro did not suffer any losses during the next three trading days of the week. Thus, so far, everything is going to the point that the next COT report will show that non-commercial traders are increasing purchases. The pair has recently lost about 120 points, but this drop is too weak to be reflected in the COT report.
The fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged on Tuesday. No optimistic information coming from overseas. Only negative news from US President Donald Trump, the Democrats, the media, on coronavirus, on rallies and protests, and so on. There is still one negative associated with Trump's figure even when he refrains from another discouraging statement. For example, an unknown person opened fire during a regular briefing at the White House yesterday, near the White House itself. Naturally, he could not inflict damage on any of those gathered at the press conference, and in general it is not clear where he was shooting and why he did so. Nevertheless, Trump had to be urgently evacuated from the briefing, and the US dollar could start a new round of decline from the very night because of this event. In addition, if anyone has forgotten, rallies and protests within the "Black Lives Matter" movement continue in many cities in the United States. The fact that some media have stopped covering these events does not mean that the rallies themselves have stopped. This time, Trump suggests sending the National Guard to Portland. "Portland, which is out of control, should finally, after almost 3 months, bring in the National Guard. The Mayor and Governor are putting people's lives at risk. They will be held responsible. The Guard is ready to act immediately." Trump wrote on Twitter. Recall that the rallies have been going on for three months.
Based on the above, we have two trading ideas for August 12:
1) Buyers continue to wait for the right moment to start active trading again. To make new purchases of the euro, you are advised to wait until the price consolidates above the resistance area of 1.1884-1.1910. Then we will recommend buying the pair with the target at the resistance level of 1.2019. In this case, the potential Take Profit is about 80 points. If the price consolidates above the Kijun-sen line (1.1817), you can also open longs with the target of 1.1884.
2) Bears are still moving down with great difficulty. The fact that the price is below the Kijun-sen line leaves them chances for a new downward trend to form. Thus, we recommend opening sales after breaking through the support area of 1.1702-1.1727 while aiming for the 1.1579 level. Potential Take Profit in this case is about 90 points.
