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16.01.202119:27 Pregled Forex analiza: EUR/USD: Why did Trump fail in his attempt at uprising?

Donald Trump is due to step leave office in mere 4 days (if nothing extraordinary happens). He will make influence neither on politics nor the economy nor international relation of the US. Therefore, he will not be present in the news and will play no role as a market catalyst, at least for the currency market. Before he steps down, I decided to pay tribute to the policymaker who ruled the largest global economy for 4 years, broke down international treaties, built the wall on the border between the US and Mexico, slammed journalists, cursed in the public, lied nearly 15 times a day according to official estimates, etc. Eventually, Donald Trump ventured into an uprising. This is how he ended up, denying the outcome of the presidential election on November 3. Certainly, this social riot cannot be defined as a full-fledged coup, for example like it happened in the USSR in 1991.

Exchange Rates 16.01.2021 analysis

In fact, over the recent 4 years Donald Trump used to "forget" that companies and news agencies did not have to obey his orders. They belong to private entrepreneurs like himself. Actually, he had this last-minute thought that prevented him from orchestrating a real coup on January 6. From my viewpoint, the main cause of all his troubles is mass media. As it was said above, lots of companies in the US are a private property. It means that they perform according to the will of their owners. As soon as Donald Trump took office back in 2016, he behaved as though all mass media in America (including social networks) are state-owned so that he could say whatever he wants. Apparently, he expected journalists to echo his words without trying to contradict him. In fact, Donald Trump was at the helm of the US, not North Korea or China or the USSR where all news agencies have always been under strict supervision of the state. Therefore, 95% of newspapers, periodicals, and TV companies ganged up on him immediately and launched a game. They rushed to find out a lie in the president's words and debunk it. So, for the most part of his term Trump did not use mass media to inform people or make an announcement.

He used to swear at mass media and attacked it. In turn, they published materials to his disadvantage. Trump preferred to deliver his ideas through social platforms. None of the previous presidents exploited social media so actively. Soon after he became the President, people were mulling over whether he was ruling the country or sending messages on Twitter or Facebook. Later, it became clear that a team of PR assistants were acting on behalf of the President. In this case, all those messages lost their value as 10-15 messages were posted every day. In fact, the Internet was flooded with Trump's tweets. Moreover, Trump did not always use social networks to communicate with the population. He used them to accuse, make loud statements, argue with the Democrats, and attack the WHO and China. Trump believed that by these moves he would shape and manipulate public mood. In practice, it turned out that for a very long time no one has taken the president's accounts seriously. Moreover, at the end of the presidential term, Twitter and Facebook simply blocked his profile. Do you see the point? Social networks have blocked the president's account forever!!! Can you imagine this in Russia or China? Thus, those sluggish attempts to keep power in hands using the same methods that led Trump to the heavy defeat were doomed to failure.

Second, Trump didn't have enough support. In fact, from the very beginning. Looking back to the 2016 elections, few believed in Trump's victory as Hillary Clinton was taking the lead. Since then, the level of support for Trump in political and government circles has been waning every year. Only few prominent policymakers and top officials openly clashed with Trump. However, it was clear that Trump failed to achieve complete obedience from his party fellows. Hence, the government had to deal with frequent reshuffle of resignations among top officials. Again, this is not North Korea. Later, the Pentagon was not going to blindly follow Trump and his whims. The Defense Department simply refused to introduce a regular army to suppress rallies and protests across America as Trump demanded. The country's chief immunologist, Anthony Fauci, is not going to indulge Trump and assent to him on serious issues of national health. Jerome Powell was not going to cut rates simply because Trump ordered him to do so and in some other countries they are lower than in the United States. Well, the Democrats were ready to confront any absurd decision and proposal from Trump. Thus, he had to forge ahead with some initiatives through the lower house of Congress.

Thus, the last months of Trump's rule and his pathetic attempts to stay in power only caused laughter. All the courts, which Trump's team filed to recognize the election as a fraud, denied such lawsuits. The US Supreme Court, to which the state of Texas and 17 other states appealed with a claim (!!!) on fake election results in other (!!!) states, also dismissed the claim. Interestingly, Trump relied on the Supreme Court when he appointed a new Chief Justice to replace the untimely deceased Ruth Ginzburg. Trump has not provided a single evidence of his charges against the Democrats. Moreover, he did not try to do something that would really add weight to his words. If the election was indeed rigged, why did Trump act like a beaten puppy for the past 2 months? Why didn't he really provide any proof of falsification to the public? Why didn't he declare martial law? Why didn't he block the Internet, didn't arrest anyone (at least for election violations), didn't impose a curfew? Precisely because Trump himself knows that he lost the elections and no one will follow his orders. Moreover, Trump understands that Americans no longer want him to remain president. The Capitol assault looked just like the last attempt to change something, and it was also the final nail in the coffin of Trump's political career.

Exchange Rates 16.01.2021 analysis

Trading tips on EUR/USD

The technical picture of EUR/USD reveals that the pair has bearish prospects. Last week, the US dollar rebounded off the lowest level in 2.5 years and asserted strength across the board. Late Friday, the pair passed through 1.2097. Some analysts assume that the US currency has some prospects for recovery, though the fundamental background in the recent days suggests weakness of the US dollar. Curiously enough, the market has got used to unpredictable trajectories. In the last months of 2020, the US dollar was extending weakness without any weighty reasons. To sum up, the greenback has been following the overall downtrend. Hence, you are recommended to trade EUR/USD downwards with the bearish target of 1.2002.

*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.

Paolo Greco,
Analitickog eksperta
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